On Expectations
14 comments so far
April 10, 2008 by
Expectations are the theme of the week. With one week before the Spring Game, hope is blooming faster than flowers. Big talk can be heard around the water cooler, filling message boards and blowing up phone lines. The Sporting News' Tom Dienhart wrote a glowing piece about Pelini. (Though, later in the magazine, they say not to expect too much from NU in '08). Former Husker Matt Vrzal is calling for a BCS birth. And Jon at Corn Nation seems fit to be tied by the reactions people give him when his posts are not glowingly optimistic. How much is hype and how much is reality? I've tried to examine some of the reasons. And yes, I have my own set of expectations for the 2008 team.
Every team in America is undefeated in Spring football. Bo Pelini has only coached one game for NU, and that was on an interim basis in 2003. NU was 5-7 last year. Those are facts. So, then why are fan expectations for the Huskers seemingly going through the roof? I've tried to pull apart some reasons why NU fans may be so optimistic.
"Feel Good" Effect
I can't believe I'm about to paraphrase Carl Marx, but "religion is the opiate of the masses", and football is almost religion in NE. It is our opiate. Now, Tom Osborne is back in charge. Former Husker greats appear to be visiting almost every day. Assistant coaches Ron Brown and Barney Cotton are both talking about being the most physical team on the field, in the conference, in the country. Seduced by these good, familiar feelings, it is very easy for Husker fans to get a little carried away and think a return to glory is just around the corner. No doubt, more practical issues will decide outcomes on the field. But, this return of the Husker Way is the lens through which fans are viewing the team, and it colors everything a rosy shade of red.
Talent and Returning Starters
Many, many things went wrong under Callahan and Pederson, but most folks believe that one thing went very well - recruiting. NU has talent. And that means right now, not for the future. NU strung quality back-to-back-to-back classes together and it raised the talent quotient of the team. People knock that 2005 class because of the hype that came with them. But Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Lydon Murtha, Phillip Dillard, Barry Turner and Zach Potter are all talented players who are motivated going in to their senior year. The 2006 class was chalk full of high-quality linemen, and we're already seeing how that added depth is making the offensive line the best unit of the NU team. The players from the 2007 are flashing talent this spring, and looking to make an impact as well.
That is what was so maddening to many NU fans last season. There was talent on the field (and on the sidelines) that wasn't maximized. Many people - myself included - think NU in 2008 could come down to a "just insert coaching here" situation. Hello, Mr. Pelini.
Further, NU has returning starters back in many positions. Take that with a grain of salt, since those starters when 5-7 in 2007. But, most importantly, NU returns a quarterback with starting experience. The record-breaking tear that Joe Ganz went on during the last five games last season is fueling a lot of the hype this spring. Had he not gotten game action, I think people would be a lot more skeptical. At BRN, both Steve Hanway and I agree that Ganz is the ultimate variable in NU's 2008 chances. If he can cut back on the turnovers and run the team efficiently (a la Todd Reesing) NU could be very effective on offense. He has a line and some weapons. But if he turns it over like he did against CU to end the year, NU could struggle.
Bo Knows Defense
Some are saying, "So what about the quarterback. NU's problems last year were on defense!" How can NU be good when last year's defense was the worst in statistical history? Yes, NU jumped from the mid 50s nationally to the top 15 under Pelini in 2003. But, seriously, how far can they leap up from 116? The optimists answer with Pelini's track record.
You can find all kinds of stats and comparisons and such. It is easier to put more stock in people. Personally, I believe people are what their actions - their results - say they are. Pelini develops top-15 defenses. That's all he has done since 2003. He's done it at three different schools. Most recently his defenses have been top 10 in numerous categories. Based on my belief in people's results, I'm expecting that trend to continue to a degree in 2008. Seriously, NU can be at least top 20 in many categories (scoring defense, total defense, turnovers) next year.
Don't buy this litmus test? Then consider the opposite. Kevin Cosgrove inherited a talented defense (with multiple NFL draft picks) coming off of a very solid 2003 season. And, he drove them in to the ground in 2004. (70-10, oh the horror!) Cosgrove's results were littered with mediocre defenses at Wisconsin. Only his 1999 squad stood out. And the Badgers got a lot better on defense after he left. So, the person pulling the strings can and does make a difference in the first year. If Bo and his staff does what they know how to do, it is fair to expect good results. I know they expect it of themselves.
Schedule Matters
Winning the North division (and therefore the conference) is a two variable equation. It's NU's record in the conference compared to the other North division teams' records in the conference. Bo Pelini inherited an NU schedule that is very conducive to winning the North division. The Huskers get their arguably hardest division foes at home. And remember, neither Missouri or Kansas has beaten the Huskers in Lincoln in decades. Fans respect those teams. But, certainly don't fear them. If NU wins their division games, very good things are likely to happen.
Other Big 12 schools are going to see Missouri and Kansas coming, and I don't just mean NU. They won't be the surprise they were in 2007. They both have South schedule slates that have losable ball games. A 12-team conference provides plenty of tough sledding to go around.
Expectations Are Not a Numbers Game
It is fairly easy for fans to develop a realistic range for NU's win total next year. The bottom number is 6 (three non-con cupcakes, Baylor, ISU and KSU) and the top number is 11 (Does anybody really think NU could beat OU?). But, my expectations refuse to fall in to the "call a number" trap.
Those familiar with my writing know what I'm about to say. I expect NU to win the North Division. You can win the division with 5 wins in conference, or with 8 conference game wins. You can be a 7 win team or a 12 win team. It doesn't matter. Winning the division means you have vanquished regional foes and won something. It also puts you on the field for a defacto one-game playoff for the BCS. And, 33% of the Big 12 title games have been major upsets. So, Vrzal's calling for the BCS birth becomes a 50/50 (or at least 70/30) proposition if the Huskers can just win the North.
That's not a prediction, it's an expectation. That is where the bar needs to be set. With NU's talent, resources, facilities, program history and coaching staff, I expect it to win that division. Success or failure starts there in my mind. We should be past just hoping for bowl eligibility. Half of the Division 1 schools went to bowls last year, for Pete's sake.
My expectation: win the division. Win it over, and over, and over. Win it so often I am tired of writing about it. That is the mark of consistently high play, a perquisite for a conference crown and the only gateway to the BCS.
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kyle Apr 10 08
As much i love husker football and i do LOVE husker football i feel some teams are being left out.... baseball we are doing probly the best we have done since the early 2000's and bowling we are in the nat game for like the 10 (i made that up we have been there alot tho) im just saying i love football but i want brn to expand to more than football :) please
Brett Apr 10 08
"Pelini develops top-15 defenses. That's all he has done since 2003."
I want to pat you on the back and say "go huskers," but I'm not sure the reasoning is that sound.
Pelini's defenses in 2003 came up against a pathetic schedule. Go look at how many teams we played with losing records. Penn State was 2-9 for crying out loud. We played 4 good teams that year and 3 of them set offensive records on our defense.
Pelini next jumped to Oklahoma in 2004. Did he "develop" their defense? Their defense was one of the best defenses in the country and it had a disgusting amount of talent...before Pelini got there for his one year in 2004. Same with LSU from 2005-2007.
So did we get a top coach, or simply a man riding the coattails of men like Stoops, Venables (sp?), Saban, and Muschamp? Hopefully Osborne didn't hire another Solich that was simply riding the momentum of his predecessors.
I've got my tickets to the spring game and I'm fired up to see the Blackshirts hopefully return, but inside I'm nervous.
GBR.
darren Apr 11 08
Kyle - I feel you, man. We enjoy many other Husker sports, baseball included. And we are excited about the diamond Huskers right now, too. Everyone, go check them out on April 19th, please!
But, we don't feel we have the time or knowledge base to cover them all. So, we stick with football. Maybe some day we'll add a baseball contributor and basketball and volleyball...
For right now, I'd highly recommend cornnation.com. They do a very nice job covering most Husker sports, including baseball.
darren Apr 11 08
Brett,
Good points, all. It is fair to contend that Pelini was not the *only* factor in making those defensive results.
Here are my two assumptions that may or may not be flawed. 1) I think the NU D is better stocked with talent for 2008 than most folks believe. He's inheriting something to work with. 2) The Cosgrove example from before. D Coordinators have a history of making some impact right away - good or bad.
Of course, we know what they say about assumptions. So...like you, I just can't wait for actual games! For now, I'll settle for a well-attended practice. :-)
Steve Apr 11 08
Darren,
A very provocative post to be sure.
Just to be clear though, you're not really saying the season is a failure or more specificly that the coaches have done a bad job if the Huskers fail to win the North, are you? Despite our belief in the talent in-house, we know that recruiting rankings need to be viewed with some skepticism and so how do we really know that these players are really so much better than those at other Big 12 programs? And don't other schools have a decided advantage where there players have spent years learning a system and ours will have only had a number of months?
I can come up with any number of scenarios where I'd view 2008 a success that comes up short of winning the division. The most extreme/absurd would be a repeat of 2001 where the Huskers snuck into a national championship game (and won it this time!) despite losing the division.
Last year, NU went 3-1 out of conference and 2-6 in conference. If that became 3-1 and 4-4, that would certainly constitute improvement and could pretty accurately been seen as a positive step toward turning the program back around. 7-5 was all OU needed in 1999 as a launchpad for their national championship campaign in 2000 and it was only a game and a half improvement from 1998. I wouldn't say the coaches have underachieved if that took place.
If the Huskers went 4-0 and with a 5-3 Big 12 record, that would not only be "progress" but in my mind some cause for celebration. That would essentially have restored the Huskers to where they were before Bill Callahan arrived. It would likely put the Huskers back in the national rankings and restored the team to relevance. More importantly, it would make Nebraska one of the better teams in the Big 12.
I have no problem with saying the mindset for the players and staff should be that they can win the division now. What I won't do is cast this team as underachieving if they fail to do so. They have too much ground to make up.
I'll go back to what I said "here" as my minimal expectations for this staff. We should be willing to consider that the roster and the program does need a wholesale rebuilding and that they will face programs with a head start (including a head start on being a head coach).
All that said, I certainly don't rule out that Pelini could make a Bob Devaney-like splash where he instantly improves the team's record by 4.5 games. That improvement would equate to about 10-3 today. Even Devaney finished 3rd in the Big 8 his first year. So while the Huskers could well compete for the division right now. I won't label them underachievers if they don't play in the Big 12 title game.
AustinHusker Apr 11 08
Great posts and nice article. And Darren I would have to say after reading your articles for the past several years, I cant remember when I started, this seems to be one of the more optimistic ones you have written. I think it was a very good review and makes a ton of sense. I feel very similar to you that the talent is there to win the North. And as Steve mentioned if NU went 7-1 and Mizz went 8-0 in the conference I wouldn't say it was a bad season. But also reading between the lines I am pretty sure that is not what you meant.
The one other point I would like to make other than records or conference championships is it will be a successful season to me if we get back to playing like NU football has been for my entire life. If NU would have went 7-5 last year with losses to Mizz, Kansas, TX and USC (all top 10 teams) with one additional slip up and not got blown out or let teams score 50, 60 70 point on them, I wouldn't have been throwing parties but it is tough when you play 4 top 10 teams. But they didn't play like that and all the responsibility falls on the coaches whether they like it or not.
Now in 3 years if we play 4 top 10 teams and dont beat most of them I might not be so forgiving.
Just get back to playing hard nosed NU football and the records will fall where they might.
Later and again great article.
darren Apr 11 08
In response to Steve - and other un-written questions - no, I'm not defining the season as a failure if NU fails to capture the North.
And,I am not *predicting* a North title either. There are too many good teams for that. And, most of this post was about outlining the reasons other fans may be so rosy (in some cases, that includes me).
My last point was that as a Husker fan, consistently high play and North titles are where my emotional bar is set. I don't think is unfair to expact that of NU. As accomplishments go, it is the middle ground. I won't "settle" for going 6-6 and squeaking in to a bowl, nor is it fair to clamor for Big 12 crowns and BCS births.
If NU goes 10-3 and falls short of the division title, I'll still be happy for the team. That would be a major improvement. And they will be playing meaningful games late in the year. (And hey, the can't win it every year). It doesn't change the fact that my "default setting" for expectations start with the division.
ray233 Apr 11 08
Calling numbers will always be up for debate, but there are two very important factors to keep in mind when evaluating the upcoming season:
Coaching and attitude.
In regards to coaching, Callahan's teams were coached up on system, system, system. That staff couldn't squeeze the talent out of a recruit if their jobs depended on it....
Cosgrove's players wouldn't even effectively...forget his inflexible schemes.
Every team has schemes. Every team has talented players. Every team has to believe in the possibility of winning the division and even a National Championship. The PRIMARY DIFFERENCE in the games that are won, is coaching. The PRIMARY OUTPUT of that coaching, is attitude.
I see Bo installing a culture of attitude and accountability . I hear Eckler talk about "playing with our hair on fire". I hear about 11 guys getting to the ball every play, or an a$$ gets chewed. And when 10 guys play like that, the 11th will fall in line, or get choked out.
I get the hype factor. Hype, is the idea that we'll win every game because this and that should happen. That's anyones guess. Reality, is that the culture and attitude of the football program are moving back in a familiar direction. Run hard, hit hard and play your butt off every single down, or we'll find someone who will.
Attitude is being placed at a higher premium than the playbook at this point.
Who do you want on the field? The guy who knows all of the plays, but is just doing enough to stay on the field? Or the guy who will go %100 every down, regardless of what the scoreboard says?
With Callahan, we looked for individuals to incite the emotion on the field. We relied on Thenarse or McKweon to pump up the team. You need leaders on the field, but the attitude of the unit, is the coach's responsibility.
Callahan and Co. failed to excite players about Saturdays. The bred a culture of political correctness and unaccountability that made players complacent. They failed to tap into that reservoir of emotion that college players, especially on defense, need to have to be playmakers.
This staff has the right mindset. They understand something very simple. You can feed them plays all day, but if they don't possess that aggressive, winning attitude.....they're no different than the next team with fans, formations, players and coaches.
Championships start with attitude. That fundamental change is happening. No guaranteed wins, just necessary change.
bnahusker Apr 11 08
The best point in this post is about being "Bowl Eligible".
That is the moral equivalent of me going to work with the goal of taking care of my customers just well enough to not get fired.
I know that I can't do everything right, every time (Mainly because my boss reminds me) but even on a bad day, I try to do my best. I would hope that being bowl eligible would be considered as "Settling", and not be an issue until November. It should be taken care of by then.
Have a great weekend!
Bo Big Red
Bob
Dwayne Apr 11 08
ray 233 hits it directly on the head. I couldn't agree more. Great post Darren. The substance of team play is what got Callahan removed among other things. You really have to look at how the team wins and how the team loses. Begin with that, and then look at the overall w-l ratio. I believe it was Tom Novak's hit during kick coverage years ago that sums up what people want to see. That was a direct implementation of how things were done back then and I think that's what Pelini is trying to re-instate as a culture. Hit like that and you show your oppenents that win or lose, you guys will feel it for the next two or three weeks of your schedule, which in effect, has an indirect relationship of how things could play out with claiming the north.
"Not the victory but the action. Not the goal but the game. In the deed the glory."
nt from nyc Apr 11 08
Read brn all the time as it is one the main sources that i get my bigred fix from. My suggestion is to make the external links open in a new window as some of us use mobile devices to read the blogs & it gets frustrating to click the back btns.
Thanks for doing a wonderful job and gving me my fix of husker footbal almost everyday this off season.
Dan Apr 11 08
Wins and losses are less important to me than having a team play the way a Nebraska team should play. With passion, high energy and playing until the last whistle is blown. Over the last 4 years we have been the one absorbing the big hits of other teams. It has been humiliating. The rest of the big 12 North will realize before 2008 is over that "we ain't playing tag" anymore!
Go Big Red!!!
Greg Morrow Apr 11 08
Okay, I'll say it: "religion is the molasses of the masses."
Callahan's last two classes were team builders, no doubt. I can't say that Pelini's first is better, with the depth of good players.
No matter, for the time is now. If Callahan were still on board, he'd love this offense (he does love some offense). But he's not and Nebraska, with a defense that should be twice as good statistically, gains two more wins, just from that.
Simply getting the ball to the offense, once more, per quarter. That can account for up to 7 to 10 extra points, right there. Chances denied the opponent.
The name of the game. Get the ball back to your offense. (I know, I've got a handle on the obvious.) When Nebraska was a top 5 team, the defenses gave the offenses extra chances to apply the hammer, wear teams down and go for the big strikes. Literally preventing other teams from winning. Except for the notable comebacks and a couple of shootouts.
What Pelini sees, (me thinks) is offensive talent far and away better than '03's pickup truck and a defense almost diametrical to '03's, which could suprise a few people with how many were still in the NFL as of last year. Just look at that defensive depth chart. Including Trevor Johnson, for example. Right now, Potter or Turner, are no Trevor Johnson.
But, as Pelini said, "we'll make our *'s"
That makes this team 3 games better.
Bill in Iowa Apr 14 08
Brett makes a good alternate point, but I am going to have to agree with Daren on this one: If you have talent, then it's all about the coaching. I think we have a lot more talent on defense than what we realize. Last year, d-players were confused, out of position, slow, and finally lost their confidence and their hustle.
Bo isn't a magician, but he brings a great philosophy and motivation to his Defense. Here is my take on Bo Ball:
Swarm to the ball.
Speed wins out, get the fastest players on the field (their is a reason Glenn is playing LB).
Simplify the D so that your players are not confused and can play aggressively.
Run Multiple sets, pop in and out, to confuse the Offense and then take advantage of their mistakes.
Win the turnover game.
Play on fire, and play with attitude.
Those philosophies are going to make the D fun to watch this year. The wins will take care of themselves. Who really can predict? All I can say is that I love the philosophy and it will make a huge difference and keep us in many games. I can see NU winning the Big 12 North or maybe we lose in close games to Mizzou and Kansas?
However, if Bo can muster a top 20 defense this year, then the Big Red is going to have a good season, because offensively I think we may field one of our best teams in 5 years. Watson is really going to work some magic...but thats another article. Hint. Hint. :)