Lessons From the Super Bowl

10 comments so far February 4, 2008 by Darren K. Carlson

A fanatic can be defined as somebody who won't change their mind and won't change the subject. So while there are a myriad of topics and subplots ready and worthy to spring forth from the NFL hullaballoo last night, the Husker fanatic in me tends to only see those that somehow relate back to Husker football. And, since you are visiting this Husker-themed site, I assume that is what you want to hear about and talk about. So, here goes. Last night's game reinforced the fact that one-game situations are a crap shoot (even if I did totally nail the prediction haiku), and that no offense (even the vaunted spread) is unstoppable. And, those points relate directly to the Huskers in 2008.

One-Game Situations...
All one-game situations, like the Super Bowl, the BCS, other bowl games and conference title games sort of happen in their own little pocket universe. The are horribly unreliable and unpredictable. Ask Bob Stoops. Ooooh, cheap shot on the super genius.... Anyway, the point is to get ON those fields and take your chances.

To me, the huge upset in the Super Bowl is just another reminder of how important it is to win the North Division. Wha? Okay, think of it this way. Since its inception in 1996, the Big 12 title game has had a 33% upset rate. I haven't researched it, but I suspect the SEC and ACC games have had their share of upsets too.

So, the #1 call to action for Pelini and company this year, and every year is to win the division and qualify to play in that game. There will be years when you win and you aren't deserving. There will be years where you will lose and it will frustrate. But, every time, it's a 50/50 prospect of going to the BCS and a huge payday. The goal - in one word - is ... qualify. Forget overall record for right now. Focus on winning the division over and over and over again. Put the law of averages on your side and go from there.

Pressure Beats All
I'm so sick of hearing about the spread offense I could puke. The only thing more nauseating than its role as the "great equalizer" is NU's profound and disgusting inability to defend it under Callahan and Cosgrove. Last night, in front of the whole world, the Giants showed that any offense can be defeated. And, beating them usually starts with pressure on the quarterback.

Before I get too far ahead of myself (too late?), let me just say that any offense - when executed perfectly - can't be stopped. The option, run perfectly, is the unstoppable play. So is throwing out of the spread. In both cases, preventing a team from perfect execution starts with demolishing the line of scrimmage. The option won't work if the QB can't go more than a step or two, and the pitch back meets a guy in the backfield. And, even if the spread is just three-step drops or quick screens, winning the line of scrimmage beats it...every dang time.

The fundamental assumption going in to last night's game was that Brady and company would pick the bad Giants secondary apart with 3, 4, and 5 wide receiver sets, beating them in space both horizontally (Welker) and vertically (Moss). Essentially, the spread. The problem with that assumption was that Brady would be protected. He wasn't. The Giants' defensive line dominated, and the coaches blitzed in the right spots to create good matchups for their best players. Brady got hurried, got pounded, and it affected his play.

Now, back to Nebraska. Cosgrove's results against spread formation offensive teams wasn't, uh, good. There is an understatement. The drubbing in Lubbock was horrible, and the chronic 3-3-5 formation with read-and-react tactics against Missouri last year was laughable. When NU had a D-line that could attack a quarterback, like in 2005 and 2006, they faired better, though still lost to Tech in Lincoln.

Under Pelini, I think NU fans will see a radical departure from those tactics. Pelini will get corners to play receivers one-on-one, with some safety help over the top, and then do everything he can to pressure quarterbacks. It will yield sacks, bad throws, and turnovers. We saw it with NU in 2003 and more recently with LSU in the BCS title game.

So, pardon me if I don't get too caught up or scared about the return of MU's Chase Daniel or Todd Reesing at KU. Of course, they are very good players. But, between them, they couldn't carry Tom Brady's luggage. If Brady can be beaten with pressure, anybody can. And, Husker fans, Pelini is going to bring pressure.

There is a notion that just might get you through a couple of long months without any football.

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