How Nebraska out-recruited Kansas, Iowa State and 30 other schools
17 comments so far
February 7, 2008 by
Bo Pelini and his new staff just locked in the 30th best recruiting class in the country according to rivals.com. Not bad considering the staff has only been in place for about two months.
But, stars from recruiting services don't necessarily translate into on-field success. Instead, let's look at who else offered scholarships to the guys Nebraska landed, and which teams *ahem* stole recruits from the Huskers.
Setting the Stage
For this study, I looked at every guy that Nebraska offered a scholarship to and charted who else offered them a scholarship and to which team they signed a letter of intent. Some of the more highly recruited players get 5 or 10 scholarship offers. That's when it gets interesting because you can start making generalizations on how your team is doing when competing head-to-head with another team.
The Huskers received commitment from twenty seven players on signing day. But, did you know that 109 other guys turned down Big Red scholarships to play ball somewhere else? Yeah, it turns out recruiting football players is a lot like selling vacuum cleaners door to door. You have to hear "no" a lot before you get a "yes."
Losing out to a Conference Rival
Who did the Huskers lose the most players to? Somewhat surprisingly, California. The Bears got six commitments from guys NU offered. Here's where it gets uncomfortable. Missouri is the second biggest Husker poacher.
There were 13 guys offered by both NU and Missou. Nine of them chose the Tigers. (*cough*Gabbert*cough) Four of them are coming to Lincoln.
Other top Husker-robbers include Michigan, Arizona State, Texas A&M, USC, Oklahoma and Notre Dame. With the exception of A&M, you can't really blame guys for choosing to play for these storied programs, some of which are at the top of their game while others are rebuilding. But, what's going on in College Station? Something in the water there is attracting former Nebraska players, coaches and now recruits, like Chris Berman to leather. But, that's a topic for another day.
| School | We Got | They Got | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | 0 | 6 | -6 |
| Missouri | 4 | 9 | -5 |
| Michigan | 0 | 5 | -5 |
| Arizona St. | 2 | 6 | -4 |
| Texas A&M | 0 | 4 | -4 |
| USC | 0 | 4 | -4 |
| Oklahoma | 3 | 6 | -3 |
| Notre Dame | 1 | 4 | -3 |
| Iowa | 3 | 5 | -2 |
| Oregon | 1 | 3 | -2 |
Out-recruiting the Big Guys
It's not all doom and gloom. The silver lining here is that Huskers had success pulling commitments from guys that were looking at offers from programs like Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas and Oklahoma State. The fact that seven recruits passed up opportunities to play for Nick Saban or Bobby Petrino should warm the hearts of Husker fans.
When it was all said and done, there were thirty other schools that lost more recruits to the Huskers than the Huskers lost to them. That's another way of saying that NU out-recruited thirty schools head-to-head.
| School | We Got | They Got | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | 4 | 0 | +4 |
| Oklahoma St | 4 | 1 | +3 |
| Kansas | 3 | 0 | +3 |
| Alabama | 3 | 0 | +3 |
| Clemson | 2 | 0 | +2 |
| Northwestern | 2 | 0 | +2 |
| Purdue | 2 | 0 | +2 |
| Texas Tech | 2 | 0 | +2 |
| Kentucky | 2 | 0 | +2 |
| Iowa State | 3 | 2 | +1 |
Recruiting in the Big 12
It's almost a double score any time you can steal guys from conference rivals. You get him. Your foe does not. And the Huskers faired pretty well versus Big 12 opponents.
NU went head to head with every Big 12 school except Texas on at least one guy and generally got more guys than they lost.
| School | We Got | They Got | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State | 4 | 1 | +3 |
| Kansas | 3 | 0 | +3 |
| Texas Tech | 2 | 0 | +2 |
| Iowa State | 3 | 2 | +1 |
| Kansas State | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Colorado | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Baylor | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 3 | 6 | -3 |
| Texas A&M | 0 | 4 | -4 |
| Missouri | 4 | 9 | -5 |
Conclusions and Caveats
I'll be the first to admit that this is pseudo-science. We're dealing with a fairly small sample and we don't know what happens behind closed doors. (i.e. The recruiting service says an offer was made, but was it pulled at the last minute or did the coach decide to let it die on the vine because someone better came along?) Also, correlation does not imply causation and all that jazz. Most of all, there's no law that says a highly recruited player has to perform well on the field. As I have been known to say, "You can't buy groceries with potential."
But, if we want to make some broad generalizations, we could suggest that the Huskers held their own in 2008 recruiting against their Big 12 foes, with the exception of Missouri. They also had notable success pulling recruits from Alabama and Arkansas, programs that put together the #1 and #2 recruiting classes in the country, if you believe Rivals and Scout.
One thing is for sure. It will be fun to watch Bo Pelini and his new coaching staff turn these youngsters into Cornhusker football players.
Your Homework
All of the data I used here is freely available from scout.com. If you would like to massage the data in your own special way, feel free to use my spreadsheet. If you stumble upon any grand discoveries, be sure to share them in the comments. We're saving lives here people.
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Bill in Iowa Feb 07 08
Good work here Jason...interesting. There is no doubt Colorado and Mizzou benefited from the coaching change. I doubt next year they are going to steal that many away from us. What's the deal with A&M...I too am curious? With are emphasis in Texas, its likely most of these recruits were from Texas and wanted to stay close to home?
doombob Feb 07 08
The electric company buys groceries with their potential all the time. Sorry. Engineering joke.
Jason Feb 07 08
Bill, I'm not sure what is up with the A&M link. First it was Bill Byrne, then Randy Jordan, Buddy Wyatt, Dave Kennedy and I think, Scott Frost. The whole thing is strange. Like they are building a bizzaro-Lincoln down there.
Doombob, no need to apologize. Nerd jokes are more than welcome here!
Confused Feb 07 08
So we beat 30 schools in recruiting, or we were 30th?
Jason Feb 07 08
Confused: Don't be.
We out recruited thirty schools head-to-head. That is to say, there were thirty schools that lost more recruits to us than we lost to them.
Rivals.com also happened to rank us the #30 class in the country, which adds to the confusion. But, that's not what I was referring to in the title.
Greg Morrow Feb 07 08
Nice analysis, Jayson!
Actually a bigger disparity with both Scout and Rival's Big XII team rankings than overall, nationally. With Scout viewing Pelini's first class 4th in confernce and Rivals ranking it 8th and 30th nationally.
Probably, somewhere in between.
I think it compares well with Callahan's first, considering also that Callahan was reaching for any and all available Quarterbacks.
I don't see, what to me, are many "reaches" in this class. Some developmental guys, but Nebraska has developed guys, for years. Used to have a reputation for that. As long as they pan out academically, this large sized class could have a lower proportion of attrition, than Callahan's first two classes and a couple of Solich's.
I think this class portends well for Pelini and co.'s next and first full strength effort!
Bill in Iowa Feb 07 08
AND no last minute defections? What's up with that? We have almost come to expect 1 or 2 per recruiting class in the past few years. Perhaps Bo's way of being honest and up front with players is a two way street. The way some recruits put it was that Bo basically said, be straight with me...are you in or are you out...make a decision and let us know.
Jason Feb 08 08
Good point Bill. I also wonder if the herd was thinned when the coaching change occurred. It probably scared off those that would have been prone to waiting till the last moment to switch sides.
NE2WA Feb 08 08
Things seem to be looking up recruitingwise beyond this year's class.
The Huskers are already being looked at by three of the top 25 players on Rivals' list, including two of the top three.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/players/02/07/rivals.100/index.html?eref=T1
oldgrunt/mizzou Feb 09 08
I would not get to upset at losing players to MU. I would guess that many of these were from Missouri, and with MUs recent success on the football field, it is tougher for a Missouri player to say no to MIZZOU. Pinkel has spent much time repairing relationships with Missouri HS coaches, has good facilities, and arguably is a program on the rise.
Quite frankly, as a MIZZOU fan, Pelini concerns me, but so did Callahan. My sense is that like Pinkel, he will excell in the developement of the players he has, which Callahan did not. His recruiting will probably improve over time.
I do know one thing. Pelini will be able to motivate players, which it seems to me, Callahan could not do.
Big Red Feb 09 08
Well that is one way to look at it.
But how many were exculsively recruit by pelini or had Callahan got in on them.
Pelini has show nothing so far
in as much of how nebraska delevopes football has Dr tom reopened the sterioda and hgh program for the football players
jbs Feb 09 08
Pretty well thought out analysis. Also an MU fan. Have to agree that a large part of this class really is still Cally's, but at least Pelini stopped the bleeding there at the end. Have a feeling that NU will have trouble pulling kids from MO for the next few years at least. Should have better luck in TX next year with KUs assistant though.
Jason Feb 09 08
NE2WA, thanks for the link. It's crazy to think that highschool juniors are already "committing."
Oldgrunt, thanks for sharing a reasonable Missou perspective. I think you're right. The days of Nebraska poaching the best players from the state of Missouri might be over for a while.
Big Red, I'm not really sure what you're trying to say. Shake it off and give it another shot. :)
BTW, some other Missouri fans are discussing this over here.
Jason Feb 09 08
jbs (and the rest of the Missou fans), were there any surprises in this year's Tiger recruiting class?
You guys sure did a good job pulling recruits that were looking at Nebraska. But, did any others get away? Who had your number this year? (if any)
jbs Feb 09 08
Illinois was a fairly big thorn in our side, I feel like. Zook recruits against us in STL quite a bit. We got all but two that we had verbals from, 1 going to ILL, the other apparently was told a month or so ago that he wasn't going to have a spot due to academic reasons, and ended up signing with TT. The only team that we really had a lot of head to head battles with (I think) was NU, and your original post tells that story. I was very happy with this class personally. Felt like Gabbert was a must get (or must keep in state) for us. Next year looks to be huge in MO already, with maybe the best HS class in MO for a long time.
jbs Feb 09 08
Oh yeah, not too many surprises. Got a kid named Malbrough who was planning to go to Iowa state kinda last minute. looks like he could turn into a stud, but has only played fb for 2 years now.
mutiger91 Feb 09 08
MU's class
- Good balance and meets future needs well
- Got pretty much everyone in state we offered except Compton (may be another one, but if so, they left early and weren't on the table for most of the)
- Some of our Texas recruits aren't flashy from a stars perspective, but they are far from "filler" as one was an early offer and we had a lot of very talented options at the end and had to tell some good kids not to visit.