From Murderer's Row To Easy Street?
10 comments so far
January 10, 2008 by
I've said before that Bo Pelini is arriving at NU in a season where the schedule sets up very well for him. But, in the wake of watching 10 of NU's 12 2007 opponents play in bowl games (ten!), I think a side-by-side comparison of what the Huskers faced in 2007 and what they could face in 2008 is in order. By no means do I think that NU is getting a cake walk in 2008. There are no free passes in the Big 12. But when you consider their opponents and game sites, they didn't exactly have easy sledding last year. That has the potential to improve in 2008.
My habit is to evaluate results when they are all in, preferablly not before hand, or during mid-season. So, I didn't know how tough NU's 2007 schedule was. Well, the 2007 season is over, and NU faced 10 bowl-eligible teams. That's pretty astounding. All of NU's non-conference foe's went to bowl games (Though it is fair to argue whether Ball State and Nevada were really bowl worthy). The only two teams NU faced that didn't qualify for bowls were the only teams in the North division to finish behind the Huskers - Iowa State and Kansas State.
Side-By-Side Comparison
In many ways, I think the NU schedule could be much, much easier in 2008. Of course, that's conjecture on my part. We won't really know until all the hay is in the barn. But compare the schedules in three phases, and see if you don't agree.
2007 Non-Conference - Nevada (6-7) in Lincoln, Wake Forest ( 9-4) in Winsten-Salem, USC (11-2) at home, Ball State (7-6) at home.
2008 Non-Conference - Western Michigan (5-7), San Jose State (5-7), New Mexico State (4-9), Virginia Tech (11-3), all at home in Lincoln.
Facing three non BCS-conference teams with losing records in 2007, all at home, is not a terribly scary prospect. Playing Wake on the road in 2007 could be seen as a much tougher test. Of the big-dog foes for each year (USC in 2007 and VTech in 2008) it's hard not to consider USC more fearsome.
Yes, I know that VTech won the ACC conference, and will present NU's stiffest challenge in the non-conference portion of the season. But, their blowout loss to LSU to open last year and their loss to KU to end the season sort of takes the bloom off of the rose. And, bonus, NU will have an extra week to prepare for that tough early contest, unlike 2007.
2007 North Division - Iowa State ( 3-9) at home, Missouri (12-2) in Columbia, Kansas (12-1) in Lawrence, K-State (5-7) at home, Colorado (6-7), in Boulder.
2008 North Division - Missouri at home, Iowa State in Ames, Kansas at home, K-State in Manhattan, Colorado at home.
It's the same faces in different places. NU played the three strongest members of the North division on the road last season. Getting Missouri, Kansas and Colorado all in Lincoln provides a much safer spot in which to fight for division superiority in 2008. If you are going to face two division foes on the road, it might as well be the two that didn't go to bowls the year before.
2007 South Division - Oklahoma State (7-6) at home, Texas A&M (7-6) at home, and Texas (10-3) in Austin.
2008 South Division - Texas Tech (9-4) in Lubbock, Baylor (3-9) at home, Oklahoma (11-3) in Norman.
North division titles often hinge on the southern slate that North teams face. Traveling to Lubbock to face Tech is very likely harder than playing either OSU or A&M in the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium. So, I'm glad to see NU get a bit of a reprieve in the form of the Baylor Bears. And, I'm counting the game in Norman as a likely loss. All told, the south slate might be just a touch easier in 2008.
When you add the three elements together, it is fair to argue that NU could have an easier plate of games in 2008. But, you never know. Few expected performances like the one Kansas had this year. That's just one example from 2007's surprises. There could be pot holes along the way in 2008, too. As Kenny Rogers once sang..."there will be time enough for counting when the dealing's done."
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Husker Mike Jan 10 08
It's not hard to argue that the non-conference schedule lightens up quite a bit. But I'm not so sure the conference schedule gets easier. Yes, Mizzou and Kansas come to Lincoln. But they should be as good or better in 2008. I think Kansas State and Iowa State will be improved as well, though.
I would disagree about the South part of the schedule being easier though. Road trips to Lubbock (remember last time?) and Norman are much harder than what we faced in 2007. Yep, you do get a home game with Baylor, but that hardly offsets Tech and the Sooners.
doombob Jan 10 08
I can tell you right now, I am hoping for a KU-like run next year. I could care less if we are called overrated, I would be happy. Realistically, I see 6 likely wins, 3 50/50 games, and 3 not likely wins. Pull down a couple of surprises in Big 12 play, make the Big 12 championship, or get a good bowl game, and everyone's happy. Rough chances of getting a bunch of wins in the 2008 season? I would say: 6 wins 95%, 7 wins 90%, 8 wins 75%, 9 wins 50%, 10 wins 25%, 11 wins 20%, 12 wins 15%, 13 wins 10%, 14 wins 5%.
WOW Jan 10 08
doombob said today:
"I would say: 6 wins 95%, 7 wins 90%, 8 wins 75%, 9 wins 50%, 10 wins 25%, 11 wins 20%, 12 wins 15%, 13 wins 10%, 14 wins 5%."
He said earlier:
"Since I can see into the future, I predict 9 wins. Doesn't matter who the coach is. You heard it here first, folks."
"I called 9 wins before we even picked Bo as our coach."
Just quoting.
JR
cvldfg Jan 10 08
Darren,
You are saying in much better terms than I have been posting since "Bo Genius" was hired.
I am the crazy one who believes 10-2 is a reality.
Greg Morrow Jan 10 08
To me, this is a similiar schedule to Callhan's '04 campaign, switching Southern Mississippi for the Hokies. The requisite "Championship Subdivision" opponent is missing, though.
But when Callahan's '04 team took to the field as one of the most confused teams in Nebraska's history (on both sides of the ball) every opponent seemed set up for a "pitched battle," save Western Illinois, Baylor and Missouri, who, inexplicably tried to make Brad Smith into a pocket passer. (For that season, anyway)
Anyway, the offense is established, to the extent that everyone has experience and knows what to do.
As with Bo's '03 season, this season's success will be determined by the improvement of the defense.
Which will be so much better!
Bill in Iowa Jan 11 08
It's hard enough to predict anything, especially since we do not know the fate of Lucky. With Lucky, a solid run game, young but capable recievers, a healthy seasoned Qb with great feet, and a creative signal caller (please, please, please, Mr. Watson) we could possibly have the best offense in the North. The only obvious question at that point is how well will our defense perform with Pelini at the helm? Can he work a miricle...or is he actually human? If Pelini is human, 6-8 wins. If he is a God, 9+. I guess we will find out.
The Count Jan 11 08
Missouri, who, inexplicably tried to make Brad Smith into a pocket passer. (For that season, anyway)
That was a weird game with everything that could go wrong going wrong for Missouri. Starting with their flight skidding off the run way. They had a punt blocked and another where the punter panicked and missed the ball altogether. Missouri also missed a Field goal or two and Cory Ross had that 86 yard run to put the game away. it was truly an awful game. :)
For the record despite the 24-3 score...
Total offense............. Missouri 328
Nebraska 235
And that was with a 86 yard run.
AusitnHusker Jan 11 08
We might be getting a bit optimistic here. I would love to see a 10 win season or a 14 win season, but given that fact that Kansas had something like 5 seniors in the two deep and Mizz doesn't loose a whole lot either, 10 wins looks tough. We could start the season 3-3 and not be surprised. Would it be totally our of the question to loose three in a row to VT, Mizz and TT especially with TT in Lubbock. I will be yelling as loud as I can but lets not get carried away just yet.
I will say Bo's cupboard is not as bare as the one Bill got.
doombob Jan 11 08
Look, I was just trying to get into the mindset of the odds makers. I've heard that the over/under cutoff for Nebraska next year is going to be 8 or 9 wins. You're welcome to quote all you want, I'm not running for political office so I have no worries about being called a flip flopper if I change my mind or alter what I'm thinking. I still think it's a 50/50 shot at the 9 win mark, and I'm just going with what I hope will happen. Anyway, one of the reasons I'm not a fan of putting what I say out there on the internet is because I can't easily convey sarcasm. I believe any statement starting with Since I can see into the future should be taken with a grain of salt. Hey, well thanks for being a fan. It's obvious that you care very much for everything that I say, and hang off my every word.
AustinHusker Jan 17 08
I know I am a little late on this one but CNNSI just came out with there top 25. We play 5 of the top 17 teams in the nation according to them, OK, KU, TT, MU, VT. If that is correct, 7-5 doesn't look that bad.
Easy street might be misnamed.