A Class in Transition
6 comments so far
December 21, 2007 by
Let's face it, transitions suck. All transitions - from something as small as writing a transition sentence to things as momentous as changing jobs, moving, or getting divorced - are difficult. And, when it comes to recruiting football players, NU is definitely in transition right now. But, like those other situations I just mentioned, the transition period does come to an end, and people can find a new set of norms and habits with which to feel comfortable. In the interim, the key to any rocky transition is to stay calm and not panic.
A Transition Year
Take a look at these numbers. They are NU's recruiting class rankings for the last six years, including NU's ranking for this year prior to Callahan being fired.
2002 (Solich) -- 40th
2003 (Solich) -- 42nd
2004 (Solich/Callahan transition) -- 27th
2005 (Callahan) -- 5th
2006 (Callahan) -- 20th
2007 (Callahan) -- 13th (prior to coaching changes)
Source - Rivals.com
Here it is for those of you that like pretty pictures.
For purposes of this graph, lower is better. I know that is a bit counter intuitive to what folks might be used to thinking when it comes to graphs.
So, what? Well, I think the graph demonstrates well how NU went from one level of recruiting (the 40 range) to another (the top 20 range). And, in the year during which there was a change over, you got a mixed bag and it resulted in a ranking somewhere in the middle. Without being too basic about it, that is where I think NU will end up ranked during this transition - somewhere in the middle...not top 10, but not around 40 either.
The transition will occur in three phases, I think. We're past the first phase and midway in to the second. The good part - the third phase - remains.
Phrase One - Attrition
Put bluntly, this is when kids leave. It is inevitable. NU had a lot of players and those highly-regarded kids have a lot of suiters. My amigo Steve would probably call it regression to the mean. Yes, it hurts to lose players. But, in recruiting, it always boils down to relationships. And, when you change out many of the people involved, relationships are affected or disappear all together.
The good news is that it appears to be coming to an end. NU has taken their lumps and lost many of the kids who where on the bubble. Now, they have sorted the likely "yes" kids from the "no" ones, and eliminated much of the "maybe" from the equation. They can set their feet and move forward. That's phase two.
Phase Two - Energy
I call this phase energy, but it could be a lot of things. Basically, it is instilling the recruiting environment at NU with new energy - Pelini, Cotton, Sanders, Brown energy - and forging new relationships. This is no easy thing. The first step was pure damage control, in getting in to the living rooms of the kids NU already had a chance with. Now, they are seeking new players and exploring new routes.
As I said earlier, it is a relationship game. Yes, building new relationships in a short period of time is daunting. But, the also have more than just a week to do it. This staff has roughly 50 days in which to court some new talent. You'd be surprised how far that can take you if you are willing to put in the work. And, if you put in that work, it may yeild some nice return.
Phase Three - Rebound
Whatever energy and relationships Pelini and staff invest in this class will pay of in some way. Do I know how big the payoff will be? No. I'm not so naive as to think that the top-drawer kids in the country will just come running. But, it is not going to be an exit-only situation, either. Remember the graph...it's somewhere in the middle. Just like Callahan was able to pull in some players late in the cycle during the transition year, (Grixby, etc.), Pelini will likely have a few very nice players to come on board, too.
Action Item for Fans - Don't Panic
The Internet is a very, very real factor in recruiting these days. Not for coaches so much, but absolutely for players and fans. Players get online and read the kinds of things that fans say on posting boards and blogs like this one. And, yes, it affects their opinion of coaches and programs.
The best thing fans can do is stay positive and optimistic about their coaches. No doubt these guys want to do a great job. And, avoid spewing negative things about players, coaches, or recruits online. For starters, it shows a lack of class. But, it also affects the ability for NU to attract players. Let's welcome anyone who wants to consider being a Husker. There is no place like Nebraska...
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Kyle Dec 21 07
Thank you for writing a blog about recruiting and how it has changed and will change.
I love to see a graph of recruiting classes to wins but i dont think they had rivals when TO was around
doombob Dec 21 07
There's no way to tell how good a player is going to be based only on his ranking in that year's recruiting class. What I like to look at is the "rate of change" when it comes to potential recruits. How much does a kid improve speed, strength, on field stats from sophomore to junior to senior year? I really think that if you look for a 2-3 star guy that has a higher rate of change, you may have someone who's much better his senior year in college than that five star player who coasted on his abilities. These improving players are the type of guys that Pelini and Co. are going to get. You will see them reap the seeds they're planting. Next year at this time, we'll probably be talking about how many years down the road it will be before we're in a national championship game again.
scott Dec 21 07
Star ratings don't mean anything to me. I've eaten at some 4 and 5 star restaurants (not many) and I've stayed in some 4 star hotels before. Some are not even close to being as good as advertised Star ratings give guys like Jeremy Crabtree employment.
There is a long time until signing day so there is no need to panic. There is a good chance we'll lose more recruits but I promise you we will gain some good quality recruits that WANT to play here and will make their mark on this program.
Brandon Dec 21 07
Well done, Darren. A hopeful outlook. I like it.
Greg Morrow Dec 21 07
Of the 15 or so guys who are still "committed," I'd label them soft commits, except for Kreikemeier, up until they sign. King Arthur himself tapped the sword on Kreikemeier's shoulder. (Couldn't Osborne maintain some type of advisory position on the coaching staff?)
But, I'm not at all concerned about it. This staff has so much of a time advantage compared with Callahan, not to mention a built in advantage of knowing the region better from previous experience.
Would have like to have mantained that greater Phoenix area pipeline will Bill Busch still on board, but it's better to have Marvin coaching up the secondary again.
Now, the staff has to size up guys regionally and nationally, then nab someone else's "commits." Tit for tat.
cvldfg Dec 22 07
I agree. I have been telling people down here for years. Callahan may be getting more blue-chip players, but he can't coach talent. That was evident in Oakland. He had a Superbowl caliber team and ruined them.
Great graph Darren! I like simplicity and data even an 8 year old can understand.
Scott, I've seen and experienced a lot of the same sentiments. I would much rather have guys that's hearts are into it, rather than talent alone.
I stick by my statement from prior post: We have a good chance of 10-2 next year. At worst 8-4. Especially if Pinkel leaves. There will not be a coach that will outcoach us next year. If we lose, it will be because of lack of depth or player mistakes. BUT NOT BECAUSE OF COACHING!