Defining Success for Nebraska’s Next Head Coach
22 comments so far
November 29, 2007 by
One dirty secret about creating a site with original daily content is that sometimes you’ve got to write things ahead of time. Such is the case as I write what this piece. In this case though, it’s probably a good thing. With Nebraska seemingly on the verge of hiring their next head coach, it’s probably well-known by the time you read this exactly who that will be. Nevertheless, it shouldn’t matter who that person is when it comes to defining success, only what success looks like. I lay this out now, so that when the going gets tough (i.e. Nebraska loses a few games) I can come back to these stated expectations along with any rebuttal (or lack thereof) that appear in the comments.
To me, this represents about the minimum for what the next coach needs to do over the next five years in order to be what I’d consider living up to expectations. These numbers are inclusive of bowls. Anything less, might deserve a pink slip.
2008: Six wins – It’s possible a 6-6 Nebraska team wouldn’t get invited to a bowl, but 6-6 to me is the bare minimum for next year, especially with Baylor on the schedule. A loss in the bowl would be tolerable because it’s both the new coaches’ first year and the first bowl game in two years.
2009: Seven wins – This makes Nebraska a winner again, and with three gimmes in the non-conference schedule, going 4-5 the rest of the way isn’t asking too much.
2010: Eight wins – The coaches will have the benefit of the players they had a full year to recruit having a full year in the program to prepare. Most of the glaring holes on the roster when they arrived should be addressed. Baylor’s gone from the schedule but Washington replaces Virginia Tech on the schedule. It’s time to raise the stakes.
2011: Nine wins – Not only will the team have had three full recruiting classes and a partial one, but now two of those full classes have had a full season or more to prepare. Also, Washington comes to Lincoln.
2012: Ten wins – This could mean another Alamo Bowl, Holiday, or Cotton Bowl but truthfully it’s big boy level. I could say they need a division title or BCS bowl by then, but what if Missouri becomes a juggernaut like Nebraska was in the 1990’s? They didn’t fire McCartney or Snyder for losing to Osborne. And you wouldn’t fire Nebraska’s head coach for being second best to a great team.
I could go further ahead, suggesting that the 2013 squad should win 11 games, but really any coach that wins ten games (even if they go 10-4) ought to keep their jobs (barring major off-the-field issues). Even eight or nine wins is probably good enough if this year is any indication of how competitive the college football landscape will be in the years to come.
Ironically by this standard Solich would have been retained in year six, but he also might have been fired after year five. Solich probably deserved the chance to fail in 2004, even if that was inevitable with Joe Dailey at quarterback. But hopefully by now we can put the Solich arguments away. These expectations aren’t about Solich. And they only involve Callahan to the extent that he’s handing his successor a losing team with a lousy defense. The trickiest part might not be hitting or exceeding the first few benchmarks, it’s about avoiding a backslide. Mike Shula won ten games in his third season at Alabama, then won only six the following year (which became his final year).
The next head coach can take some time building the program, but once it is built, it needs to remain consistent. Otherwise, Nebraska will be looking for a new head coach in another few years.
But I'm asking, do these expectations make sense? Are they too high? Too low? Too linear? Do they need to include division or conference title expectations?
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Andrew Nov 29 07
We better win more games than that with the players we have. If we can maintain this current class of recruits (which ranks 13th in the country by Rivals) expectations should be just as high as always.
Tyler Nov 29 07
I agree with Andrew that these expectations are conservative. We have good players, we have excellent facilities, we have academic support to the team. I don't see any reason why an astute coach who can work with the personnel he has and has a high quality staff can't win 7-8 games next year.
We have 8 home games next year. We get MU and KU at home, don't have to play TU and our road "tests" are TTU, KSU and ISU.
Other coaches have shown it can be done in year 1 and 2. With all the helps a new coaching staff has here, why can't we?
doombob Nov 29 07
Actually what the next coach needs to do is be able to stop the spread. Anyone remember Nebraska v Northwestern '01 Alamo Bowl? That was the beginning of the spread getting popular - and Nebraska smashing it was why it took a couple more years for it to catch on.
Turner Gill should be able too... whoops I mean whoever our next coach is should be able to win at least 7. I predicted 9 already. Sorry about the slip up. I don't know anything special... Just a "gut feeling"...
Andrew Nov 29 07
Doombob,
If Turner were going to be the coach, why has he not been named yet? He has no bowl game, and is free to do what he wants? I will give you one clue he is not going to be the next HEAD COACH.
doombob Nov 29 07
Wow, I was thinking of ways to stir the pot up so to speak, but man that's brilliant! Saying that he will accept a STEP DOWN to some type of assistant coach is genius! The fact of the matter is, Dr. Osborne probably just hasn't decided quite yet and he will tell us as soon as it is possible to do so.
Bill in Iowa Nov 29 07
Andrew - thats a pretty good point. Its hard to say...it would seem the interview process is over since Osborne is hitting the recruiting trail. If its Gill or Grobe (or someone else), I think he will announce the decision Friday or before. If its Bo, then he will have to wait to announce until after Saturday's championship game. In short, if we don't hear news before this weekend, my money is on Bo being named early next week.
Bill in Iowa Nov 29 07
From the Lincoln Journal Star:
Most players were tight-lipped about the meeting, which started at 4. One player, on the condition of anonymity, said Osborne did not go into great detail about the coaching search, offering only the tidbit that it “may be be over by this weekend.”
James Moore Nov 29 07
After years 1 & 2, I would say 9+ wins and a bowl. The losing seasons hurt, obviously, but when we lost the 9+ wins consecutive season streak, that was when I felt a chink in the prestige. . .
I took a look at next season's schedule. 12 games with only 4 on the road. First 5 at home. A great opportunity to get comfortable, build up some confidence, and get some team unity. . .
Virginia Tech is a very winnable game. They have the most vanilla playbook possible. One that this year's bunch would've done OK with. I'm calling the Virginia Tech game now for the Huskers. Even with Tyrod Taylor they will not run the spread. Beamer didn't run it with Marcus Vick and with Glennon back, he should be their guy, expect a two-headed QB from them much like LSU with Flynn & Perriloux. Glennon's a good QB but under-center attacks with a dropback QB is what we do fairly well with. Their LB's are small and our offense should be very good next year. Missouri at home (game 5) will be tough, at Texas Tech (young, young, young team this year), and at Oklahoma are the tough ones. But as a resident of Virginia I can tell you that we SHOULD beat Virginia Tech.
We COULD end up 9-3 next year. . .
Mike Nov 29 07
Lets not forget that looking at not just the wins and losses but HOW Nebraska played throughout the year is important, giving up more than sixty points twice and seventy once and over thirty to damn near everyone. to score 39 points in a game against Kansas and still lose by 37. In twenty five years Tom Osbornes teams soored 30 points and lost ONCE, that was the Orange bowl where we went for two and didn't quite make it. and the arguement that the game has changed and no one is going to be dominant any more seems a little lost if you remember the " Fun and Gun" offense that Florida had in the 1996 Fiesta bowl. All the Huskers did was beat them 62-24.
Talent exists at Nebraska, if you believe those that rank recruiting classes. there seems to be somthing missing with coaches that were just fired.Something that hasn't been here since Dr Tom retired. I believe that Turner Gill can bring a lot of that back and rather quickly I would think, Time will tell
Shane Nov 29 07
I think these are too linear. As TO said, a losing season is certainly a sign that the coach is not succeeding. But beyond that, I think your later benchmarks are too harsh.
Both USC and Texas have 3 losses, probably largely due to losing players to the NFL. Rutgers returning Rice but is 7-4 ... but lost two very close games early. If our 2010 and 2011 are like one of these teams 2006 and 2007, I think of course we will be very happy (although we'd expect strong performances in the conference championships/bowl games to come). Pederson's adage about not giving up the Bix XII, that we should be competing for conference championships (and thus BCS bowl games) every year makes sense to me. As competitive as things are, that might mean following BCS years with 8 wins, and being ok with that.
As for another 9+ win streak, I don't mind the Big XII being too competitive for that, but a in-conference winning record is important. 4 non conference cupcakes, and 4-4 in the Big XII is not success in my eyes after the first couple years.
I also agree that looking at recruit rankings is the wrong thing. But we better get top players for our system and the top talent from in state.
Darren Nov 29 07
My expecations for Nebraska, now and forever - WIN THE NORTH.
Everything in the new college world of 12-team conferences, title games and the BCS hinges on winning the division.
Sure, I'd take bowl eligibility for starters. But, seriously, win the division so many times I'm tired of talking about it. Then, we're getting somewhere.
ze bop Nov 29 07
Brian Kelly has won 9 games in his first year at Cinci and the Big East has some decent teams.
So why couldn't a coach get 7-9 wins at NE?
OU7times Nov 29 07
Remember when "you" only had to worry about K-State, in the Big 12 North? Times have changed and now it's Kansas and Mizzou and OK-State and Colorado and Texas and Texas Tech...The point is that their is no viable reason to expect such results as soon as 2 years or 4 years. The thing to remember is that unless you are from Nebraska, and you are a recruit,I'm not sure that even TO's personal trip to visit you will carry that much weight.TO has been removed from the game too long for some of these kids to know his real importance. Serious damage has been done and it will take lots of time to fix. Tom has already said that it won't be an "overnight fix". Please don't set expectations, or more importantly, goals that are unrealistic at this point. Some coach is going to have to come in and clean up this horrific mess. You could say this is the college equivelant to CHERNOBAL. Too high of expectations and grumbling when "enough" wins are not attained will not go over well with a new coach and will cause another rebuild situation. Look at it this way, how long would it take YOU to fix this mess? Just a personal take on the matter.
cvldfg Nov 29 07
Didn't LSU crush VT? And the DC was? While I am not predicting a victory for NEBRASKA, I will say we sure as hell will have a big advantage on our side, (if Bo is the man).
I am predicting 8-4.
doombob Nov 29 07
How to gauge success without looking at wins? To paraphrase a Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart "I'll know it when I see it."
P.S. which has a more powerful impact: Doctor or Coach Tom Osborne?
TRN Nov 29 07
i think these are the bare minimum that the new coach can win and still have fan support. But if he wins more then he wins more. i think it just might take a little time for the new coach to make the changes that need to be made and get this team up to its playing potential
Skull & Bones Nov 29 07
My how we've lowered our expectations.
OU7times Nov 29 07
Yes, but losing 2 games to Kentucky (43 points allowed) and Arkansas (50 points allowed) does not reek of defensive genius either.
OU7times Nov 29 07
@cvldfg, Just as Callahan was revered for his offensive "genius", he was resounding failure with his selection of defensive coach and just because BO is a revered defensive "genius" he will still have to have the other half (offensive coach) to make it work. This is a similar receipe that didn't go as planned. Probably should be thinking that if you get BO, who will coach the offense?
The Count Nov 29 07
OU7times Nov 29 07
Yes, but losing 2 games to Kentucky (43 points allowed) and Arkansas (50 points allowed) does not reek of defensive genius either.
Forget to mention that each of those games were 16 overtime games. it helps your argument.
cvldfg Nov 29 07
I agree. I've said all along the offense could move quicker under BC. That's why I would like to see them keep Watson or bring in an offensive minded coach.
ze bop Nov 30 07
If we go back to '05 and '06, 8 & 9 win seasons were perceived as bare minimums for success for Calli--among most fans. Alot of fans saw those numbers as unacceptable though, and wanted his head after last year(now all those guys are saying, 'I told ya so').
Anyway, OZ said that 8 wins this year would have kept Calli his job and probably many of us would have gone along with that for NOW considering how desperate we've become. But in the off season the criticism would be consistently amplified and make things less 'viable' as OZ said.
But really, 9 wins per year I think is the bare minimum for perceived success among most fans though 10 wins is what really makes people feel like we're 'NE' again. 7 wins would probably get by for year one of the new regime, but after that you better get 9 or the heat is on; at least that's the way I perceive Husker Nation.
In the not so distant future, 9 wins might be the norm for teams playing for the NC, unless they start letting bigger fish in smaller ponds--i.e., HI-- into that game with their dubious 11 & 12 win seasons.
So, I guess what I'm saying is that consistently winning 9 games per year is gonna be more and more difficult, especially when you don't have clear recruiting advantages like FL and USC, and 10 wins in a year will be less frequent as well.
I think 'reality' will lower the bar to about 8 wins per season as being acceptable, with the occasional run at the CC and NC.