Partial Data is Unreliable
12 comments so far
September 18, 2007 by
I know that BRN readers likely don't care what Steve and do outside of blogging. But, to varying degrees, we are both in research. One of the keys to effective research is to not get carried away with conclusions made based on partial data. Put simply, small parts of data sets are unreliable for predicting and describing an entire set of data. But, that is exactly what many fans - Huskers and otherwise - want to do just three weeks in to the season.
Nobody Knows Anything in September
We shouldn't rank teams in September. It's just guessing. At best, it is a reflection of last year's results, which is really faulty logic. Last week's results alone spell this out. Ninth-ranked Louisville lost to Kentucky (who is now 3-0), UCLA got drubbed by previously winless Utah. Oklahoma State got trapped in Troy. TCU lost to Air Force. Texas got in a tussle with Central Florida. The list goes on and on. It all points to the fact that we are all making a lot of poor assumptions based what was really an incomplete data set.
My favorite example is Boston College. In the preseason, how many people ranked Boston College in the top 25? Not many. How many thought they were the best team in the ACC? Probably even fewer. Don't look now, but BC looks like a very tough team thus far, with quality wins over both defending ACC Champion Wake and last year's division champion Georgia Tech. But, don't get carried way, we are only one quarter of the way through the season.
My other favorite is Oklahoma. Are the Sooners a juggernaut? Maybe. They look awfully good. They have demolished whomever is in front of them. But, we'll know a heck of a lot more about the Sooners after their big name non-conference foe - Miami - finishes playing against another Big 12 South team - Texas A&M - on Thursday night. Until then, I'm holding off on anointing the Sooners juggernaut status.
One Quarter Complete
Nebraska has played in three of its scheduled twelve ball games. What do we know? We know NU is a good - not great - team right now. That's it. We know they have problems at linebacker, which is pretty surprising. We know they do an excellent job of answering opponent scores when playing from behind, which is a pleasant surprise. Both of those statements are born out right there in the tape of the first three games. So, we know some, but not much.
What is bothersome are those folks who care to extrapolate three games in to what could or should happen the remainder of the season. NU can still win or lose their division. They can still win or lose the conference outright. Either one of those things means the sample of possible games gets even larger - to 14. Which is why coach Callahan bristled so much at the assertion that NU is not ready for prime time after getting thumped by USC.
"I wouldn't say that," Callahan said. "I would not say that. It's the third game of the season, and we plan on playing 14. We'll see how it turns out."
Evaluate Results
I know it sounds like a cop out to take a "wait and see" attitude, but I think coach Callahan is exactly right. We'll see how NU's total scorecard pans out. Nobody at Big Red Network is some Pollyanna fan who only says vague platitudes about the coaches and the program's progress. If the results aren't there, I'll howl as loud as anyone. Believe that.
Frankly, I want to see 14 games played and 11 games won. Anything else would disappoint, since I believe "11 wins is the new 9 wins." But, in the meantime, lets all do the players and coaches the favor of supporting NU in the quest for those results and not get carried away with our reactions week-to-week.
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Tyler Sep 18 07
Bravo! I'm still on board.
GBR!
doombob Sep 18 07
I'll gladly support them. As long as they win EVERY GAME FOR THE REST OF THE SEASON! Kidding. Sort of. I also belive that 11-3 is acceptable improvement for this year.
Travis Sep 18 07
I like a lot of you was at the USC game just three evenings ago now and I agree 100% with Darren. I'm a Husker fan till the end and will support the young men that wear the scarlet and cream.
I'm a small victories kind of person. The X's and O's was lacking in certain areas Saturday night without question. However what I'm looking for at least in small part is week to week improvement in two fundamental things that were so badly missing a few nights ago. Execution and Intensity.
There were no doubt great athletes that played for TO in the mid 90's but those two attributes in my opinion are what brought us to the promised land year after year as much as anything else.
When I watch the Ball State pay-per-view on Saturday those are the things that I'll be looking for as much as anything. If they're present the wins will take care of themselves in my opinion.
OU7times Sep 18 07
As hard critic of Coach Callahan and a person looking from he outside in, I agree with the coach. It IS only 3 games into the season. Look, if you still don't like what you see from the coaching staff, at the end of the season, then it's time to make a change. Right? Coach "C" deserves to take this team, with the game plan, and his personel, to the end of the season. Obviously, this is a very emotional issue or else you wouldn't be true Big Red fans. Honestly, I did see good things from the game Saturday. I saw a realy fired up squad that gave USC a hell of a fight in the first half. It just may be that USC saw a weakness and exploited it like no other team had done. Shoring up the run defense can be fixed. The days of steam rolling the competition (in the Big 12)has come and gone.Like it or not, parity is here. The second half may have been a conditioning issue and NU may have peaked too early. Make no mind that Pete C. is a great adjustor at half time. How many more USC's will you play this year anyway? Zero. These times are extremely emotional for you because the ties to the Big Red family has been broken. The atletic director and coach have no Nebraska ties and therefore people are frustrated because "they" don't have as much at stake emotionally as Nebraskans. I do feel that Turner Gill will be Head Coach at NU one day. That is if Steve Pederson can realize that family ties are important.
Doc Sep 18 07
Actually OU, Stevie P is from Nebraska and was around here during the Osborne days. Maybe thats why people are getting bent out of shape over him. He should know how to act around here.
OU7times Sep 18 07
Doc, then it might be worse than I thought.
DrewMG Sep 19 07
And with this article, you just became my favorite Husker blog. Thanks a lot guys, great to read material like this. You guys are 100% in sync with my mindset following the overreaction to this loss.
ze Sep 19 07
That's funny, I thought you guys were used car salesman....:)
ze Sep 19 07
OU7,
"... The atletic director and coach have no Nebraska ties and therefore people are frustrated because "they" don't have as much at stake emotionally as Nebraskans...."
Well, Pedey grew up in North Platte(my Uncle knew him when Pedey was a kid, etc.) and worked at NU as a something--or--other(recruiting asst.?) under the TO and or Franky admin.s before going to Pitt and wherever else he worked before his return. Pedey IS a NE guy, no doubt.
I think you could vaguely make a connection with Calli and NE since he was O coord. and/or O line coach under Alvarez at Wisc., right?
So, I think both of these guys DO know what NE's all about.
ze Sep 19 07
BTW, because of all the attention and the well deserved criticism the D is getting from Sat.'s meltdown--and yes, it was a meltdown--I don't think enough credit is being given by Husker Nation to the very good job that Keller and the receiving corps did vs a stout SC D. 389 yds passing and Keller looked pretty damn sharp most of the game. The receivers played one of their better games to date. We have yet to score on a long bomb, though.
I'm just looking forward to the long awaited day when our O(and D, FTM) puts it ALL together for 4 qtrs. vs conference foes.
OU7times Sep 19 07
Ze, I do admit that I had assumed that Pederson had no Nebraska ties. My feeling was why would you go outside of the Husker Nation to bring in a coach with no Nebraska affiliation when there has been all those years of "promote from within"? Ze, good point on Keller. I had forgot to mention on one of my earlier poststhat Keller was one of the bright spots, on Saturday night. 384 yds on the Trojans was a tremendous feat! 2 int's are nothing when you throw 50+ passes in one game. Had Nebraska gotten their running game freed up just a bit, this game would have been way different. I know, if's and and but's.
ze Sep 19 07
OU7,
All the Calli and Pedey bashing I more or less take with a grain of salt. How does any blogger assume to know their motivations? Those guys are giving it their best, w/o a doubt, and have high goals. Of course there's room for improvement, especially on D. I agree with the general sentiment that the D has not been as good under Coz as back in the glory days. But I hope he can find a way to get it done. But he is on what seems to be a short leash with Husker Nation at this point. Many have hated him from the start which doesn't make much sense.
Agree rgdg. Keller and the rushing O.