Kansas Best in Big XII?

7 comments so far September 3, 2007 by Jason Siffring

Note: This is a guest post written by frequent commenter Doombob. Enjoy.

Jack Harry, notorious Kansas City television sportscaster, recently predicted that not Missouri, not Nebraska, but Kansas would win the Big XII championship and rise to a 10-2 record. Many pundits, including the editors of this website called Colorado the best 2-10 team in the country last year. In a similar vein, I am saying that if KU goes 10-2, they would be the worst 10-2 team in the country. That record is possible for them, it's just not as impressive as it seems.

Harry went on to say that they lost so many close games last year, that they are better than their record indicated. In fact I think it indicates the exact opposite! Good teams don't lose close games, in fact, they don't even have close games. You look at Florida, USC (grr...), etc and you see blowouts and wins of at least two scores ahead of their opponents. Remember, Mark Mangino learned from the “best” weak scheduler in history: Bill Snyder.

For its first game, the Central Michigan Chippewa's have a challenge, but an exciting one. Even though they had their third bowl appearance in school history last year, and ended with a 9-4 record, fans and writers have already called this game “daunting.” That ain't the sign of confidence, but Jayhawk fans are
glad this game is out of the way. Southeast Louisiana joins the other teams in its own conference as a member of the Big XII punching bag, teams that include McNeese, Nicholls State, and Sam Houston. Not exactly a perennial powerhouse outside or inside its conference with a 2-9 record last year.

With an improved receiving corp, Toledo may be a better team this year than their 5-7 2006 record indicates. They are obviously the toughest non-conference opponent; Unfortunately, Kerry Meier won't be there to throw 4 int's to Toledo's defense this year. KU will be looking for revenge from the year before. Florida International maybe the biggest creampuff game for KU. Playing Penn State, Maryland, and Miami by September 22nd, this 2006 winless team will be beat up by the time they get there. With very low expectations, Kansas should get harpooned by the media (and this website) if they don't dominate every area of this game.

Kansas State is a team that is imploding right now, coaches forced to run steps with players, TE suspended indefinitely, DT leaving the team for personal reasons (very important in a 3-4 Defense), and rumblings that Freeman should move to TE instead of passing (due to his decision making at QB). A Jayhawk win here is a must for a shot at the Big XII. Baylor is Baylor. 4-8 last year, going with a Red Shirt Freshman QB this year. They're playing young to prepare for the future (that means giving up on this year). Colorado will be an improved team this year. They have a habit of playing very scrappy at home, but may not be good enough for anyone in the top two thirds of the Big XII conference. Texas A&M has defensive improvement this year, and their O-line is arguably the most experienced in the Big XII, they are looking to improve on their 9-4 record from last year. If Kansas gets “up” for this game and beats A&M, Nebraska fans (and Vegas line-setters) have one stat that should make them happy: teams that beat a higher-ranked team, lost 60% of their games the following week (regardless of opponent ranking). I'm not going to discuss the Husker game for fear of objectivity. I doubt we're going to play as poorly as we played last year, but even if KU manages to beat us, the same losing statistic applies to the Oklahoma State game the following week. Iowa State never rebuilds, but rather reloads before backfiring or shooting themselves in the foot. They should not be able to beat KU at home, but stranger things have happened. As for the Mizzou game, this is the strangest situation in my mind. KU gave up a HOME GAME to play in neutral site Arrowhead Stadium. This just means that Mizzou will probably end up with a crowd 30,000-40,000 strong instead of 7,000-9,000. Not a good sign for an opponent that was picked by many to win the Big XII North.

Who did Kansas pay in the Big XII to get no Texas or Oklahoma this year? Joking. I know that it's a cyclical schedule, but this would have been the year to schedule tougher noncons for more impact in polls and preparing for Big XII play. While in the short term (the next couple of years) it may seem like a good idea to play weak teams and get into a bowl game,
the Big XII teams are trying to compete for national exposure.

To get better, look at the direction the Big XII teams are taking this year:

• Nebraska takes on Wake Forest, USC
• Kansas State plays Auburn and Fresno State (along with
  Texas A&M)
• Missouri going head-to-head with Illinois
• Baylor takes on TCU (as does Texas)
• Oklahoma St goes to Georgia
• Oklahoma takes faces Miami (and so does Texas A&M)
• Colorado plays Florida State and Arizona State

My guess is that Kansas will go 7-5, maybe 8-4. If they scheduled themselves like everyone else in the conference, expectations would be around 6-6 at BEST, but the short term loses would help in long term exposure to national audiences.

Note: If you'd like to write a guest post for us, send it to jason@bigrednetwork.com.

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