Preseason Consensus Puts NU With 3 Losses
3 comments so far
August 8, 2007 by
Whether you look at the recent USA Today Coaches Poll or the consensus of prognosticating publications, Nebraska weighs in at about 18th or 19th place. If you also look at the final 2006 rankings from the Associated Press you’ll see that the four teams that finished from #17 to #20 all had three losses. So that would suggest that the expectation is that Nebraska will lose three games.
If you go by the “chalk” that would mean that Nebraska would lose to #1 USC, lose twice to #4 Texas and then run the table everywhere else. But that would also imply another Cotton Bowl appearance for the Huskers with a higher ranked Georgia or Auburn team. That means not only would the Huskers avoid an upset this season, but they would score one as well.
USC could survive an upset to the Huskers and still finish with the top ranking in the country, so all of these predictions could come true if Nebraska upset USC early and then lost a pair of games to Texas and a bowl game (in that case, possibly a BCS game). Or, Nebraska could upset the Longhorns. After all, a #4 ranking implies at least one loss and possibly two. Texas isn’t slated to face any of the top 3 teams which would mean that just like a year ago, they’re going to be upset at least once or twice. Of course, any number of teams might upset the Huskers which would mean the Huskers would have to score multiple upsets. The least likely scenario (if these rankings were actually trustworthy) would be for Nebraska to meet and defeat a two-loss SEC team and yet still end up ranked below that team.
All this really shows us is that the final rankings probably won’t look like they do now. In particular, it seems hard to believe that five SEC teams will finish in the top fifteen or seventeen. And as an aside, why on earth is UCLA getting so much love? We get it, they return a lot of starters from a team that beat USC. They also followed that up by getting crushed by a mediocre Florida State team in the Emerald Bowl to finish a 7-6 season.
But if these rankings do have it right (at least for Nebraska) then 11-3 with another Big 12 division title and an upset over USC, Texas, or a big-time SEC program sounds pretty good and would again represent undeniable progress.
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Greg Morrow Aug 08 07
I expect Nebraska this year, to forcibly enter and finish in the top 10. I'd been looking at 3 losses too, not factoring last season's final polls. I too, am looking at a breakthrough win against SC or Texas, while some think A&M will win in Lincoln. So, there's a fairly wide difference of opinion.
In terms of preseason hype, this year is looking like a Goldilocks "this one's just right" scenario. Not nearly as much uncertainty as with '04 and '05. Really, an almost repeat of most of last year's predictions. Which were premature last year, but not this year, me thinks.
This year, as the troops dig their fox holes and look around at each other- the lineup, the "weapons", there will be a stronger, more justified confidence with each other and a maturity to battle adversity and tentative coaching (though I think Callahan has a breakout year, too). Another discernable step up in improvement is a must, no one can say it's not.
There's a confidence and urgency, which will justify optimistic expectations this year!
doombob Aug 09 07
Signature win! Signature win! Signature win! Ok, so a lot of people have called for this and expected it. I really don't believe that a signature win is especially important for a coach to get in order to be successful, but it is needed in terms of the people who give money to the program. I say Coach C gets one this year and all those people going crazy for it shut up. There's probably a 10% chance of a two loss season, 70% chance of three loss, 20% chance of four loss. I would give my completely unscientific guesses a +/- 5%.
Matt Aug 14 07
It would be nice to break the top ten and it's nice to think about what would happen if Nebraska could upset USC and be undefeted for a while. But you also have to be realistic no one really knows how good Sam Keller is going to be and if he can take the the pressure. Looks like three loss to me but you never know. Guess thats why will still watch. gbr