Sagarin Ratings Say Nebraska
6 comments so far
December 4, 2006 by
One thing I love about the bowl season is we finally get to see how the best teams from the best conferences match up. Sure an Alamo Bowl is just a consolation prize for a mediocre season, but it is also fun to beat a Big Ten team. This year the Cotton Bowl offers Nebraska a chance to match up with the AP #10 Auburn Tigers of the vaunted Southeastern Conference. The Tigers beat the AP #2 Florida and #4 LSU. Auburn's only losses came to AP #12 Arkansas and an unranked but 8-4 Georgia team.
You'd think a 10-2 team like Auburn from an esteemed conference like the SEC would be favored by any and every criteria over a 9-4 team like Nebraska. Surprisingly, Sagarin's predictor ratings rate the Huskers as a half point better than the Tigers. How is that possible?
First, the Tigers big wins all came at home, so they don't get as much credit for those (it's easier to win at home).
Also, both losses by Auburn also came at home, so they actually get dinged that much harder for losing at home. Both losses were also by 17 points or more (i.e. they weren't close losses). Then, all of their road victories are against SEC teams with losing conference records (South Carolina went 3-5, Alabama 2-6, Mississippi 2-6, and Mississippi State 1-7). Finally, four of Auburn's ten wins (including three of the road wins) were by seven points or less, so Auburn was conceivably a single play from two more losses and two overtimes (which could also end in losses).
Neither the AP nor Sagarin have any say in what will actually take place on the field. The Huskers have struggled against the better defenses on their schedule (Auburn has the seventh best scoring defense nationally) and have averaged only about 20 points outside of Memorial stadium. Still, NU head coach Bill Callahan has shown that his teams get better with more time to prepare. Nebraska has also had a pretty good history against SEC teams. The Huskers are 17-2-1 against SEC teams since 1970 including a pair of wins over Auburn (17-3 in 1981 and 41-7 in 1982).
There's plenty of time and plenty of ways to slice and dice this matchup but one thing is clear: there's still reason to believe in Nebraska, even if Auburn is the favorite.
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darren Dec 04 06
Yep, it's time to "turn the page", get the Big 12 title game behind us, and zero in on the Cotton Bowl. Way to get the ball rolling, Steve.
I'm happy the Huskers are back on New Year's Day, where they belong. Like Steve, I'm excited to be going against a big time program out of the SEC. What are bowls if not a measuring stick for your season? Let's see who we are.
While it is a very tough draw, I think NU can come out and play with anyone. Glad there are some stats to back that up.
Scott Dec 04 06
I agree completely. How cool is it to say we're playing on New Years Day again??? We also get a quality opponent in Auburn who some had picked to be in the title game.
This should hopefully get some kids from Texas some exposure to NU football to help out with recruiting in future years.
I'm anxious to see how Zac and company play in this one after the OU game. I think Zac and Mo will have a thing or two to say about the outcome of this one.
This will be a great way to start the bowl madness on New Years Day!!
RU4OU2 Dec 04 06
Husker fans take heart. I wouldn't worry too much about Auburn's D, because yours is every bit as good as theirs... maybe even better and your offense is better hands down. After this weekends game, all Husker fans should be able to see that.
Stan the Man Dec 04 06
My spider senses are telling me that Auburn is doomed. I'd love to see a nearly unranked Big 12 team punch the "Arrogant Acronym" conference in the teeth.
Unfortunately, the only conference more irritating than the SEC is the Big 11, and they are both represented in the national championship game.
The one ironic thing is that I can't but help notice is that Solich is also coaching in his program's first January bowl this year, also after losing a conference championship.
Callahan and Solich, separated at birth? Wouldn't it be cool if the Bobcats went undefeated next year, crashed the BCS party for an at-large, and played Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl?
Steve Dec 04 06
The day Solich takes Ohio to the Fiesta Bowl is the day he's drafted to play center for the Lakers.
Nick Dec 05 06
Thank you, Steve.