A Classic In the Making?
Saturday night's Big 12 title game continues to weigh heavily on the minds of NU and OU fans alike. I imagine an economic study would point to lost productivity in both states this week, as zealots in Scarlet or Crimson break down every match up they can think of. We'll I've thought about this game six ways from Sunday. Like Steve, I envision a narrow Husker win. (But that's not shocking coming from me.) What's alarming to me is that this game has the fundamentals in place to be a true classic, either way. All fans can only hope for a game decided by the classic big three - blocking, tackling and turnovers (with just a touch of wackiness thrown in).
Football Is Blocking and Tackling
No matter how brainwashed kids might get by ESPN's continual highlights of long runs and big catches, football boils down to two things - blocking and tackling. It's a physical, team sport dictated by who wants to hit. That, more than anything, makes me think this game will be a classic. Both teams are going to try and establish the run on offense and be the most physical team on defense. The game will be decided at the line of scrimmage.
I give an edge to the defensive fronts on both sides. While the offensive lines for both teams have exceeded expectations, the defensive lines on display Saturday are arguably two of the very best in the country. The offensive line that is best able to raise their game, pick up the blitzes, and create some holes will give their team the best chance to win. Both squads run for about 180 yards per game. Even half that would be considered good production in a game like this.
Both defenses are saying they want to be the best one on the field. It's going to boil down to the linebacking play, I think. The fellas that fill holes and gang tackle will win the day. With Latimer and Rufus on their side, you have to give OU an advantage in this department. Like most NU fans, I'm deeply concerned about an OU running back getting to the second level and running through the arm tackles of our safeties. The linebackers can't allow this to happen. They have to play their best ball of the year. Paging Steve Octiven...please pick up a white courtesy phone.
One upside for NU's defense is that OU isn't as equipped to expose their defensive backfield weakness as some of NU's other opponents. Yes, they have Malcom Kelly and Thompson is an adequate thrower. But, they don't present the same kind of nightmare match ups created by the players that USC, Texas and Oklahoma State lined up on the outside. This is just one more reason that the most physical team will win.
Turnovers and "Big Game" Wackiness
Turnovers are another universal factor in nearly every football game, and another reason this could be a classic. Simply put, turnovers will very likely decide this game. You have to give the advantage to the squad with the better record of ball security (NU) and who has the better quarterback (NU). Of course, Paul Thompson is an experienced player and Brandon Jackson has had inopportune fumbles recently. But, on balance, I say advantage to NU.
There is another interesting phenomenon in championship settings - whacky plays, especially early. Maybe it is because the teams come out of the tunnel too jacked up. But early on, you might see a blown assignment, an overrun play, crazy special teams or just a player slipping on what could be a sloppy field. You want your team fired up and ready to play. But, the coaching staff that has their kids focused and zeroed in has the advantage of avoiding this sort of craziness.
X Factors
There are three key factors that add flavor to this "classic-in-the-making" stew.
A rivalry revived - Fans on both sides agree that NU vs. OU is how things "should be" in this conference title game. The players, coaches, and fans are really going to lean in to this one. It just means more to play a genuine and competitive rival.
The crowd - Arrowhead should be electric. And, based on both published reports and speculation, it should be about 70% Husker fans. That has to favor NU. Regardless, I suspect both fan bases will be fueled by their team's enormous sense of mission, and stay loud the entire game.
The weather - Any game where the players and fans can see their breath immediately moves closer to "classic" status. Yes it is going to be cold. Hey, it is December, folks. And, I know some folks aren't too happy about it. But, football was intended to be played outside, not in a dome. The weather looks like it should be at least dry. So, other than the pigskin being a little bit harder due to the cold, the cold really shouldn't affect game decisions. If anything the 10-15 mph wind may be a factor in choices made or the flight of the ball.
Because of my Husker homerness, the favorable crowd, and a belief that NU is fresh and peaking at the right time, I've got Nebraska winning - 24-21, on the strength of a late score. But, I'm most excited to see if a classic unfolds right before our eyes.
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