Why Nebraska Will Beat Oklahoma
39 comments so far
November 28, 2006 by
The Sooners have been the class of the conference for most of the last seven seasons (this year included). If not for a bad call on an onsides kick, they might be very much alive in the BCS for a chance to play Ohio State for the national championship. So why would I think that Nebraska will win this game?
Frequent visitors to this site know I'm a huge Husker fan with all of the biases that come along with that. But one thing I'm not is completely blind to my teams flaws. I picked the Huskers to lose twice this year and on other occasions I've said the spread in Nebraska's favor was too high. So why do I defy pollsters and oddsmakers alike in picking the Huskers to prevail Saturday?
Simple. Nebraska is a better team than Oklahoma State.
Huh?
OK, let me back up a bit. My point is that the consensus by pollsters and computers alike is that Nebraska is better than Oklahoma State. Yet, Nebraska lost at OSU. Why? Because the Cowboys were still relatively fresh coming off a bye week a few weeks earlier and the Huskers were playing for the ninth straight week. What comes around goes around. The Sooners now have to play their ninth straight game while the Huskers are just one game removed from a bye, plus they got an extra day to recover from the CU game.
No one doubts that this Saturday's game will be a physical football game. But one team will line up dog tired and the other a whole lot fresher. This time the Huskers have the fresh legs (anyone notice Adam Carriker vs. Colorado?) and the Sooners will be trying to grind out yet another game.
Aside from the "freshness factor" is the setting. The crowd in this one will definitely lean Husker. First, the Huskers clinched a week before OU did and in fact OU did not control its own destiny. That gave Husker fans a lot more time to get tickets ahead of the Sooners. Next, is the proximity to Lincoln. An easy drive has made it inviting. Then there's the novelty. The Sooners have played for national championships in three of the past seven seasons. A lot of traveling money has been spent on bigger games than this one. Huskers on the other hand have had a couple of Alamo Bowls and Independence Bowl invitations. Let's just say the Husker fans will be a tad more eager to attend this one.
I could get into match ups, like OU's fear of passing the football (eleven attempts versus OSU?) and Purify's unstoppable ability, but I really think when two very good teams meet it's won or lost at the line of scrimmage. Even if OU's players are better, NU's are fresher and that will ultimately be the difference in a Husker-friendly environment.
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Jon Johnston Nov 28 06
Good point.... hopefully in that extra time our offensive lineman have had a chance to heal up, rest up, because we're going to need all of them.
Jake Nov 28 06
Scared to pass? Maybe you missed it but Thompson gained over 300 yards in the air the week before the OSU game against Baylor. OU isn't scared to pass, they were using a tried and true road game strategy. Run the ball, run the ball, and then run the ball some more. The best reason you have that NU beats OU is they have fresh legs? Hope you dont gamble real money with that kind of big game match up insight.
darren Nov 28 06
Jake,
I agree that running the ball on the road is key to victory. (See also NU's road game plans this year). But...11 attempts against OSU. 11. That's not running to win, it is reluctance to pass. Sure, Thompson has out performed expectations thus far. But you can't tell me OU is confident they can throw to win this game.
And, easy on Steve's "freshness factor" prediciton. It's proven correct on several occations. Hear him now, believe him later.
Jeremy in Minneapolis Nov 28 06
Sweet burn, Jake.
I do like Steve's takes though. I guess I'm just relishing in talk that NU can win, because although I figured the Corn would appear in the game, I hadn't reckoned they'd have a shot at winning it.
I think it's going to be a great game, and I can't really predict a winner.
John Smith Nov 28 06
Even if the Huskers may be able to stop the sooner passing game. I heard that a sertian running back is heading back to the field for this saturday. The huskers may be able to tear up the passing game of OU but I dont think they can stop petterson as he comes back to the GRID IRON.
Jake Nov 28 06
Just to get out of opinion and into facts. Here is are the stats from SI on receiving for each team.
Oklahoma
Receiving
Player REC YDS AVG TDS
1. Kelly 52 851 16.4 8
2. Iglesias 33 368 11.2 2
3. Johnson 25 274 11.0 2
Nebraska
Receiving
Player REC YDS AVG TDS
1. Purify 30 584 19.5 7
2. Nunn 37 552 14.9 3
3. Hardy 14 317 22.6 3
Sorry it doesn't line up but the numbers are clear.
OU's three best receivers Vs. NU's, more total catches and yards by OU are almost the same.
Anyway, I love OU and respect NU. It will be a game for the ages like the old days.
Katie Nov 28 06
John Smith:
Check ESPN my friend, Peterson is not playing. Sorry to burst your bubble!
Both teams have a shot at winning. If one team thinks that they are head and shoulders superior over the other, they may be in for a LONG NIGHT in KC!
Go Big RED!
Darren Nov 28 06
Jake,
Way to bring the stats. That's what makes OU fans great. And there is no denying what you presented there.
Here's the thing...you are working with incomplete sample. Factor in catches by NU's running backs, TEs and "other" receivers, and we clearly are more of a throwing team than OU.
Believe me, I'm not trying to short change Thompson. And Kelly is a legit NFL caliber guy on the outside. You can and will throw it. It's just that you won't have the kind of passing game you did when you competed for and won titles. You are running team. Heck, I hope you throw it 25+ times. That might say something about your ability to run on Saturday.
You still never addressed the 11 attempts against OSU. That borders on one dimensional.
DT Nov 28 06
Jake, your selective use of receiving statistics does little to disprove the point that OU is reluctant to pass. Anyone who's seen the sooners play this year can tell you that they're reluctant to pass. But in arguing that they aren't, you neglect the obvious: while the Kelly/Iglesias/Johnson combo that you mention combine with Joe Jon Finley (19-241-12.7-3) as the only four Sooners in the top 50 of Big 12 receiving yards...NU has a full seven receivers among the conference's top 50. You mention Mo P./T. Nunn/Hardy...but you miss:
Swift 18 312 17.3 1
BJax 26 291 11.2 2
Lucky 24 272 11.3 0
Peterson 17 235 13.8 2
So it seems obvious to me that the numbers you represent only serve to prove that OU is just more top-heavy (in the receiving department) than NU, rather than disproving any theories that OU is "less reluctant" to pass than other teams.
Of Big 12 QB's who have started every game...only Bernard Jackson of CU has thrown fewer passes than Thompson has. That should go a little further in determining a team's "reluctance to pass" than the stats you put forth.
red in colorado Nov 28 06
I there is anything I've learned watching NU vs OU since right after the glaciers receded it's that you can take all the stats, match-ups, records and toss em' out the window because in these kind of games the only thing you can predict is the game will unpredictable.
Who would have ever predicted an "average" (putting it kindly) Nebraska team would put a halt to Fairbanks's 5 gazillion game winning streak? These games have a history of turning on the most obscure and/or unexpected of events.
so while reviewing, analyzing, comparing, and breaking down, remember to expect the unexpected.
Brandon Nov 28 06
I haven't been here long, but I love this site. You've gone beyond the general limits of the "fan blog" and made it a real stopping point for me as a displaced Nebraskan (Hastings College '02).
The pocket guides are a brilliant idea, and as for that red shirt you're selling...thank you. I'm ordering mine shortly.
OU7times Nov 28 06
Darren, Please don't fool yourself into thinking that OU is "one dimensional". Just because a team, OU in this case, doesn't pass as many times as you think they should, doesn't make it so. I remember a man named Jamelle Hollieway who wasn't known for his passing ability or Charles Thompson for that matter. I witnessed them, in person, lull NU into thinking that they couldn't pass only to hit the passes when they needed them. Not to mention in a crazy stadium where you couldn't hear yourself scream. If a team establishes the run, why not "dance with the one who brung ya"? I feel NU has a great shot at winning this game but, lets not label OU "one dimensional".
Darren Nov 28 06
OU7times,
Hey, I'm with you about Thompson being a good runner, I said as much in a Q&A with an OU blog that publishes later this week. And, I did say that Thompson has clearly exceeded expectations. Please don't get it twisted and think I'm saying he CAN'T pass. Not the case.
Bottom line, OU prefers to run and runs to win. We agree. You can't say 11 passes in a game demonstrates enthusiasm for the passing game. And, if OU wins the game throwing it 25+ times, I'll be surprised and be the very first one take my hat off to them.
Mike B of Denver Nov 29 06
With such a satisfying win over Colorado behind us, it's truly exciting to see Nebraska match up with old arch-rival Oklahoma, our most respected opponent. Fans can look forward to an exciting match up in Kansas City this Saturday at Arrowhead. Go Huskers!
Jake Nov 29 06
Well, this is why I like NU fans better than Texas fans, NU fans like to talk football and Texas fans like to talk S**t.
I think all of the points that have been made are valid. I wasn't trying to just focus on the top guys on the OU receiving corps, I was just too lazy to go farther than the top three off of the ESPN site.
Speaking for us Hillbillies in Oklahoma we are looking forward to playing a team that should at least show up (Nod at CU) and may even win against us.
We are glad to be in KC this year. We will even bring the AP Big 12 Coach of the Year with us so you guys can see him on the sidelines.
Best of luck to everyone!!!!!
Boomer Sooner!!!
HOSS Nov 29 06
IT'S GREAT TO SEE THE RIVALS TAKE THE FIELD AGAIN. I'M REFERRING TO A TITLE GAME. REGARDLESS OF THE PERSONNEL
AND STATS, THE TEAM THAT MAKES THE FEWEST MISTAKES WILL PREVAIL. GO HUSKERS.
Katie Nov 29 06
Jake:
Sounds Good!
We will bring the Big 12 QB of the year with us.
See you in KC!
GO BIG RED!
Scott Nov 29 06
I think everyone has made some great points.
Jake,
This is obviously a pro-Husker site so we may be a little biased towards our Huskers. We don't question that OU is a very good team. They should be a one-loss team right now entering this game and I know if OU and Texas played now that OU's defense might have a thing or two to say about the outcome.
But it's NU vs. OU for the Big 8 (I mean Big 12) Title. I like this matchup. Obviously being a Husker fan, I want NU to win this the worst way. But if NU doesn't win it, I'm glad that OU is the team that will. I can't tell you how nice this is to see on the field considering where these two teams were at not too long ago.
Can anyone else tell that OU fans actually know what they're talking about just a little bit more than other fans??? It's what Husker and Sooner fans have know all along....two of the smartest, football savvy fan bases in ALL of college football. Only an observation.....
Good Luck OU and GO BIG RED!!
OU7times Nov 29 06
I had commented before about being luck enough to snag a ticket two years in a row (1986-87) in Lincoln. I would like to say how gracious NU fans were in defeat. Both were huge upsets. What a stadium! It's a shame that both of our stadiums have had to be re-configured to add more seats. It just makes me sick to do anything different to these historic structures. Thanks NU fans and good luck! May the best team win. GO SOONERS!
doombob Nov 29 06
One more thing to remember about this game being in Kansas City is the SHEER NUMBER of Husker fans living in the Kansas City metro area. Some of the local businesses like Cerner and Garmin really hit up the UNL career fairs. In the area that I live in (less than an hour from Arrowhead north of Kansas City), there are more Husker fans than KU fans. I personally know about 30 Alumni and fans that are going to the game, and I've only been living here for about 2 years. Anyway, it's sold out now and looking to be about 75-80% (over 60,000) Huskers at the game! GO BIG RED!!!
OUAdamRogers Nov 30 06
I beleive that the losser of this game will actually have a more balanced bowl game in the Cotton than the winner will have in the Fiesta. I think either team would blow Boise State out of the water. I don't really care to see that. We're playing for a BCS bowl, just because it's a BCS bowl. I wish this game had more at stake than a 2nd rate opponent waiting on the other side.
RU4OU2 Nov 30 06
To assume that OU is 1 dimensional sounds like some thing a dumb A** from Texas would say. We run because we can....lets all remember how NU won their championships w/ Dr. Tom at the helm..... If them can't stop the run, why would you pass. Some may think us to be f***ing hillbillys, but we are smarter that that.
BIG RED SLIM Nov 30 06
THERE'S NOTHIN' FINER THAN TO BE LIVIN' IN CU COUNTRY AND BE A BIG RED FAN, BUT WHAT'S BETTER THEN THAT IS TO BE EMPLOYED BY A DIE-HARD BOOMER SOONER BACKER. YOU TALK ABOUT A HEAVENLY WEEK OF WORK!! HOW SWEET IT IS TO BE GETTING READY FOR THE TRUE BIG RED SHOOT-OUT, THE WAY IT WAS MENT TO BE!!! KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK BIG RED FANS & ALL YOU SOONER FANS. THE READING IS THOROUGHLY ENJOYABLE. THE BIG RED GET'S IT DONE NU-17 OU-13
Steve Nov 30 06
RU4OU2 (No),
Did you skip your coffee today? Are you saying the Sooners set out to be 11th in the conference in passing offense, 8th in total offense, and 5th in scoring offense? At 10-2, the Sooners don't need to apologize for what they are, but don't pretend like they've got this high powered offense when they don't. We all saw Thompson go 3 for 12 for 39 yards against A&M. Is that the hallmark of a balanced offense? If so, then Woody Hayes was using the run and shoot all along and nobody noticed.
luvhuskers Nov 30 06
I have lived in KC for 7 years and still a fanatical Husker fan, however have never been able to attend a game until this one. I agree with there being a lot of Husker fans in KC, For those coming down for the game, Minskys Pizza chain is very pro Husker! I am glad with the intense snow storm here in KC, I am glad my seats are in a nice warm suite!
RU4OU2 Dec 01 06
Since it has been QUITE a while since the children of the corn have had any , and I mean ANY kind of a championship... let me refresh you memory of what it takes to win them.
D E F E N S E. I don't care if OU throws the ball 5 times or 25 times, if our defense keeps you from scoring WE WIN!!!!!!!!!!
OU 23 NU 13
Steve Dec 01 06
RU,
"Defense wins championships" is often true, but not always true. Four of the ten Big 12 championship games were won by the lower ranked defense (Texas '96, A&M '98, CU '01 and KSU '03).
Also, four of the ten Big 12 champions had the offensive player of the year. OU's the favorite for a reason, but Nebraska has a very real opportunity to win.
Chris Dec 01 06
The two keys to the game on Saturday
1. NU leads OU in the turnover battle NU +4 OU -4
2. Yards per attempt differential:
Pass NU 14.54 vs OU 13.08
Def NU 6.76 vs OU 5.90
Run NU 4.44 vs OU 4.61
Def NU 4.08 vs OU 3.23
NU defense is better than OU offense
Turnovers win games. It will be a cold hard ball
OU7times Dec 01 06
would it be fair to say the obvious? Turnovers/special teams should be the deciding factor tomorrow night. All of the stats listed by so many of you probably won't come into play as we might hope or think. STEVE said "Four of the last ten Big 12 champs were won by lower ranked defenses". Well, that's still six of ten that didn't (60%). 65-70,000 NU fans will be a nuisance but don't forget that OU has won in Lincoln and it's larger than that. I know your point but we can all twist facts and figures to prove our points. Simply this, whoever wants it more will win. Sleep tight children... GO SOONERS!!
OU7times Dec 02 06
THANKS HUSKERS AND FANS. YOU PLAYED A GOOD GAME AND WE HOPE TO SEE YOU NEXT YEAR.
Jake Dec 03 06
Well, I have come to gloat a little. Here are the stats.......
Passing CP-AT YDS TD INT RTG
Zac Taylor 23-50 282 1 3 88.0
Passing CP-AT YDS TD INT RTG
Paul Thompson 19-34 265 2 1 134.9
Check that QB Rating NU Fans! I guess he can pass if he needs to do it. BTW Kelly set every receiving record possible last night except for longest reception in the title game. Purify let the fumble get in his head and he was useless the rest of the night. NU did set one record in the game....most turnovers in a Big 12 championship game. I think this game makes it clear that when a great defense meets a passable offense, the defense will always win the game.
My regards to Zac Taylor for his season, it was great. Now he and his dad can start watching the Sooners again without any guilt.
Enjoy the Cotton Bowl it is a great bowl. We will be playing the Smurfs in the desert.
Boomer Sooner!!!!!!
Brooks Dec 03 06
As a Boomer Sooner fan, I'd like to say congrats to Nebraska for a great year. You guys played your asses off last night and left it all out there. But at the end of the day and contrary to what Steve wrote in the article above, Oklahoma was simply the better football team. Good teams make big plays and OU did that all night. Steve seemed to put a little too much emphasis into the "freshness" and home field factors. OU had to win their last 4 of 5 on the road just to get here. We could have played you at Memorial Stadium and OU still would have won. Freshness? OU has been on a serious roll since the loss to Texas. They have been playing with fire in their eyes. And they've been playing the role of underdog. There's plenty of time to be tired between now and the bowl game. But a conference championship is not the time to worry about tired bones and muscles. OU's coaching staff is too good to let that happen.
NU has a great core of players coming back next year and I expect to see NU back in this game. OU is losing only TWO starters on offense and returning 8 on defense. So what say you Nebraska! Let's do this again next year. Being from Dallas, I look forward to seeing the Big Red machine come to town on Jan. 01. I'll be cheering for (and expect) you to kick the living you know what out of whatever spare SEC team they put in front of you.
Boomer Sooners!
Steve Dec 03 06
Jake,
After watching the game. I felt totally vindicated. Check out the rushing stats
NU 21-84
OU 28-42
Not only did the Huskers outgain the Sooners rushing and passing, they also had more first downs. The fact is, the Huskers were the stronger team at the point of attack. No, they weren't so much better that they could overcome 5 turnovers. But physically, the guys up front passed the test in my mind.
Purify's fumble was an absolute gift. And Taylor's last two interceptions in particular looked like touchdowns until the ball was underthrown and/or the Sooner DB made a great play. If I were a Sooner fan, I would feel fortunate that the game played out as it did. If the Huskers were +1 instead of -4 in turnovers, I think we would have seen a VERY different outcome.
But your sound, opportunistic, and punishing secondary did a great job and it's why OU earned the victory.
RU4OU2 Dec 04 06
Hey Steve, if my aunt peed standing up she would be my uncle... you statement of if NU would have been +1 instead of -4 shows that you have a keen grasp of the obvious. You feel vindicated because your looking for any reason to feel good about your team. Your defense was better than any we played this year and you should feel good about that, but it takes more than out rushing or passing someone to win......you have to outscore them as well.
Oh and by the way defense ( past, present, and future) wins championship. Our defense is sending us to a BCS game and yours is sending you to the Cotton Bowl..
Steve Dec 04 06
RU (crazy),
I guess I can put your age at about 18 because you don't seem to remember the depths that OU fell to in the 1990's. Or maybe the fact that OU turned their program around with an unheard of speed, you forget that most programs are built over several years.
No, the Huskers didn't fall as far as the pathetic Sooners but going 7-9 at one stretch a few years ago and 5-6 at another gave us the very unwelcome taste of what it's like to be owned at the line of scrimmage. This was the case versus OU even in 2004. So the fact that the Huskers were BETTER at the line of scrimmage was an encouraging sight. Do I need to dial up the rushing stats again?
NU's 9-4 record is enough to tell us the team still has problems but it's nice to see the days of getting beaten at the line of scrimmage are finally behind us. Next up is to get some f-ing DB's and to take care of the football.
But good offenses have won conference championships. The 1983 Huskers had one of the all-time great offenses (and a crappy defense) and lost a national championship only because they refused to settle for a tie. Sagarin still ranks that among the all-time great teams. So you can win with defense, but contrary to the cliches - it's not the only way and never was.
OU7times Dec 04 06
NU fans, I was wondering what your opinions are about Callahan not using any trick plays in the Champ game after showing so many in the previous game.I ABSOLUTELY respected Dr. Tom but this Callahan guy is just too Dr. Jekyl Mr. Hyde for me. Are you guy's really buying what he's selling? I have no doubt that OU was a little concerned about tricks but it just didn't happen. NU enjoyed great field position most of the night. I felt like there was plenty of opportunity.???
Steve Dec 05 06
I'm pretty sure Callahan didn't call any turnovers. The difference in the game is 3-5 plays. Purify's fumble - not Callahan's fault. The 66-yard TD - I blame the defensive coaches there (but really it was a huge talent mismatch). The 3rd and long conversion that got OU out of it's own end zone, again I blame the defensive coaches and DB's. Zac's two picks in/near the end zone both look like touchdowns to me if he makes better throws - again, not Callahan's fault.
So yeah, I like Callahan's offensive mind. The 3rd and 1 call that went for a touchdown is an example. Part of the use of trick plays versus CU is that those plays are slow to develop and CU's front weak enough that you could run them all day. OU's front gets into the backfield too quickly for much of that stuff. I'm sure if the right situation presented itself, we might have seen it. It just never did.
OU7times Dec 05 06
Callahan is 22-14 right now. I am realistic that there will never(more than likely) be another Dr. Tom but i'm not sure that his winning pct. will ever be much better than it is now. Being a rival fan, I just wouldn't think that this would be acceptable. True, it's only the 3rd year in but, i can't see 2 more years of this.Maybe i'm just too hard on him. Question: Is there a coach that is available right now that you would rather have?
Steve Dec 05 06
OU7,
Why wouldn't it get better than 22-14? Heck, it's already 17-8 over the last two seasons which is already better than his first year. It takes years to purge bad recruits and replace them with good ones (and vice versa, Solich coasted for years on Osborne recruits). Callahan had only a few weeks in 2004 so that was basically Frank's class. The 2005 class were only redshirt freshman or true sophomores this year and the 2006 class was all true freshman (except for the jucos which are just as inexperienced in Div I). It would be downright silly to think that we're going to get all the way back with underclassman when OU and Texas have been pulling in top classes for years. In two years, the Huskers have gone from a middling North team to pulling away from that pack. Next up are OU and UT. Next year the Huskers will at least have some upperclassman that have been around. Now they have a murderous schedule next year, but the team should be better.
Stoops might be one guy, Tressel another, but I can't think of any others top of mind. Any time you bring a new coach in you take a step backwards in terms of continuity. I wouldn't disrupt the continuity for whatever flavor of the month when so far Callahan is on schedule for turning things around. One year to get things installed, year two brought us back to where we were and now 2006 took us farther than we've been since we had Osborne recruits.