Two Wins or Two Losses?
5 comments so far
November 29, 2006 by
In one of the odder bowl scenarios in recent memory, the winner of the Big XII title game will most likely play in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State. The loser? They will get an SEC power like LSU, Arkansas, Florida, or Auburn. Going by objective criteria (like the Sagarin predictor ratings) it means an easier bowl matchup with a win than with a loss. That means that the Huskers might be looking at either ending the season with two wins or two losses.
Currently, the Huskers sit #19 in the Sagarin predictor ratings Oklahoma sits #11. Undoubtedly, the Huskers would fall lower in the rankings with a loss and likely would climb higher with a win.
Currently Boise State sits at #18, but with no games left on their schedule their "power' won't change. In all likelihood, that means they will remain ranked behind the winner of NU-OU. With oddsmakers usually in fairly good alignment with Sagarin, it means that OU or NU will be favored in the Fiesta Bowl.
Should the Huskers lose (even to a good team like OU) they will likely drop from #19. The SEC teams the Huskers could face, however now rank #5 (LSU), #10 (Florida), #17 (Arkansas), and #22 Auburn. It seems fairly likely then, that a 9-4 Husker team would be ranked behind 10-2 LSU, an 11-2 Florida team, a 10-3 Arkansas squad, or 10-2 Auburn. So again, it would seem likely that the SEC team would be favored.
Now rankings and odds making don't determine football games, but a look at the scenarios suggest the Huskers are looking at either 11-3 or 9-5, with 10-4 being less likely than the other two. Still, we know anything can happen on a football field. But it puts an even higher premium on winning Saturday, because ending the season with two losses just wouldn't sit right.
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Maurice Gallarda Nov 29 06
Dear Steve Hanway,
What ranking are you looing at? Boise State is currently ranked #8 not #18. It's ok, you were only off by 10 spots.....
Grant Nov 29 06
Maurice Gallard,
Steve referenced the Sagarin rankings, which is not one you would see on a weekly basis in the paper or on ESPN. Boise State is ranked in the top ten in the coaches and ap polls (BCS I think too, but not sure) but the Sagarin ranking is completely different from those.
James Nov 29 06
Sagarin picked Boise as a loser to Nevada. How did that turn out?
Grant Nov 30 06
James...who cares? I was just answering a question to the previous post and explaining that the BCS, ap, and coaches polls were not what Steve was referring to when he gave Boise State the #18 ranking.
SGT Sack Dec 01 06
I for one would rather play an SEC team. I'm not saying I don't want to win the Big 12, because that would be hugh, but Boise State is a no win game. Win, and you beat Boist State, big deal. Lose, and you lost to Boise State, which just shouldn't happen. Plus they would most likely abuse Andre Jones. Huskers are 12-1 against SEC since 1970, according to my unofficial research. So we pretty much own them. The only loss being to Ol' Miss in '02 with our 7-7 team that all but sent Stolich packing. Bring it on SEC. As long as it isn't Arkansas we should be just fine. Can you imagine McFadden against our linebackers? Ouch.