On Expectations: Acorns or Apocalypse?

6 comments so far October 30, 2006 by Darren K. Carlson

Nebraska lost last Saturday. Yes, it is disappointing. But, to hear some people, you'd think the sky is falling. Frankly, it feels a bit "henny penny" to me, with people spouting about the end of the world because of a few fallen acorns.

Don't get it twisted. Watching Saturday's game left a very bitter taste in my mouth. So much so that in the days that followed I had to take two mental steps back and ask why I was so dissatisfied. As it turns out, I think the team is performing about like we expected it to. The results so far reflect the known makeup of this team and the matchups in the the games they lost. And, really, NU is in line with people's expectations for the season record.

But what bothers me most is people being impatient and needing to draw conclusions before all of the results are in. Examining these expectations is helpful. And hopefully it will help people understand that the Nebraska sky is indeed still intact.

First let’s examine some of the reaction to Saturday's loss. At the major newspapers, Tom Shatel is wondering if this team is like the 2004 team. Sorry Tom, it's not. You should know better than that by now. And at the LJS, Sipple continues to discuss the notion of what being "back" looks like, and the Daily Nebraskan is using the word "choke". In the blogoshere, we have people saying the Huskers have no heart, and Husker Mike is embarrassed. And, of course, the posting boards are going a little nuts.

I get it. It's disappointing. But don't think for a second that these kids and coaches want to be 6-3 or that they are somehow mailing it in. But, it's also on us, the fans. After wins over some lesser opponents, and especially after the close loss to UT, we all drank a little too much Kool Aid. Basically, this team is showing some deficiencies that we knew about all along, folks - a leaky secondary (after Bowman's injury) and an offensive line full of sophomores.

Team Makeup and Match Ups
What did we sort of suspect about these team at the season's start. Pluses - a stable of running backs, a steady quarterback and a good defensive front seven. Minuses - an offensive line full of sophomores, and (after Bowman's injury) a very shaky defensive secondary. Right now, that all looks true.

If you look at what is common about the three losses - USC, UT, OSU - it's that our secondary was torched often and at inopportune times and that our offensive linemen were unable to protect Zach Taylor in known passing situations. What about any of this is surprising? At the start of preseason camp, every journalist and fan pointed those areas as concerns. All we've seen is a confirmation of that. Up front, it's actually a bit worse, since the two seniors on our offensive line have either lost 25 pounds due to illness or lack a servicable knee in one leg.

Now factor in that the three teams we lost to are the ones where a teams with those kinds of problems is least able to match up. Their receivers are killers, and their defensive fronts are fast. It's not the end of the world. It's just that a team like OSU provides a much stiffer test for a team with NU's makeup than, say, A&M probably will. A&M is physical and wants to pound the ball, something NU has a better track record of defending. We've lost games where we don't match up well.

On the plus side, you can happily point to the fact that the O-line is better than it was in 2004 and 2005, particularly at run blocking, and that we have young talent in development there. About the secondary, it could be night-and-day next year, with the return of Bowman and an influx of young talent.

You know, the same is true about this team's areas of strengths. We knew we had a huge stable of running backs and a very solid front 7. Check and check. Sure, you could argue that it hasn't been the sack fest we thought it might. But, our front 7 has been clearly the better part of the defense.

Is it REALLY Below Expectations?
I've heard more than one person grumbling about how this team may not be living up to expectations. Really? That's kind of funny. Because when you revisit and aggregate the preseason predictions everywhere from national publications, Husker beat writers and random fans on message boards, many of them sound something like this:
"NU should go 10-4 with losses to USC, Texas, someone else along the line in conference. They will win the (relatively weak) North division, lose the conference title game, and win their bowl." Sound kind of familiar?
If you don't believe me, re-visit the newspaper archives and the posting board threads online. You hear that over and over.

So, help me understand exactly what about the season so far is below these preseason expectations? I think we all probably got a little carried away as the season wore on. Big wins over Troy and Nicholls State, road wins in conference play and a near-miss against UT will do that to you. Basically, NU is either going to finish the regular season 9-3, 8-4, and 7-5. They either will or will not win the North Division. If they are 7-5, lack a division crown, and are playing a bowl game in Shreveport, trust me, I'll be the first person in line to harp about not meeting expectations. Check that, I'll be the second person in line, right behind Steve Pederson. And...if they finish 9-3 and are playing for the title in KC, I suspect everyone will be front and center cheering their lungs out. Until then, not a word from me. Which brings me to my last point...

You Are What Your Record Says You Are
The best leaders in the world say it all the time. You are what your results say you are. And, forgive me, but I'm not going to rush to judgment and make a conclusion about this team until all of the results are in. That would be like declaring an election winner before all of the votes are counted. It's inadvisable. A more local and recent example would be all of the people calling for Callahan's head after they lost to KU a year ago. Do you think any of those people felt foolish after the bowl win? Let's learn from that and wait to see what kind of team we have over the next three weeks. Right now, NU is 6-3. That's what we know. The rest is unknown. It will be fun to find out.

Until then, please look to the heavens and know that the sky, sun, moon and stars will not in fact come crashing down on Lincoln because of what happened in Stillwater, no matter how awful it makes all of us feel.

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