Nebraska, Iowa State Must Bounce Back From Scares
13 comments so far
October 2, 2006 by
Like many Husker fans, I had a sick feeling for much of the second half of Saturday's contest against Kansas. Even if the Huskers escaped with the win, what did it mean for an upcoming road date at Iowa State? What about next year in Lawrence?
Meanwhile, Iowa State needed a late score to escape with a win over a I-AA opponent in Ames. If the Cyclones could barely get by Northern Iowa (not to mention UNLV and Toledo), how can they beat the Huskers?
To answer these questions, it seems more than fair to compare Iowa State and Kansas. Most people would give the edge to Iowa State at both the quarterback and wide receiver positions. But look at the running backs, offensive line, defensive line, linebackers, and defensive backs and the Jayhawks have the edge across the board. That means the Huskers will probably do a better job of stopping the run, getting pressure on the quarterback, running the football and passing the football. That sure would have helped the Huskers against Kansas.
Now play this out for next Saturday. As good as people think the Iowa State passing offense might be, do we really think they'll get MORE than the 405 yards that Kansas had? Especially if the Huskers won't have to respect their running game as much and will have more pressure on their quarterback? If so, that's probably more of an emotional judgement than a rational one.
Looking at hard numbers, Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings would put the Huskers as a 13-point favorite in Ames (though the actual betting line gives Nebraska the edge by only 7). The last time the Huskers travelled to Iowa State, they lost by a touchdown...with Joe Dailey as the starting quarterback. Enough said about about that.
Last season the Huskers did need overtime to put the Cyclones away in Lincoln. But that was against a Cyclone team that was a lot better defensively than the 2006 version.
Are we going to see Iowa State have some success moving the ball through the air? Probably. Are we going to see the Huskers move the ball? Definitely.
So if that helps you calm down a bit about the Cyclones, let me provide a little comfort about next year's trip to Lawrence. Yes, it's on the road and KU has been great at home. But the Jayhawks lose all three starters (and two of the top backups) from their interior offensive line, they lose Barmann the quarterback, Cornish the running back, Murph the leading receiver for KU in the game, and three starters (plus a top backup) from their defensive line. So if you think the Huskers got manhandled up front, understand that KU will have to replace most of its offensive and defensive lines and its top skill people from Saturday's game. Feel better? Me too.
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Darren Oct 02 06
Great post Steve. While things weren't exactly pretty Saturday, it is not time to go all "henny penny" and think the sky is falling, Husker fans.
Scouting KU at the start of the season, my exact thoughts were..."Jeez, they could be pretty darn good depending on what they have at quarterback. Meier gave the Toledo game away and Barmann helped NU greatly. Otherwise, KU is solid. I'll be curious to see how the Jayhawks do the rest of the year.
My pre-season read on ISU? - "Big 12 North favorite? Sell that somewhere else."
Josh Marshall Oct 02 06
I didn't get a chance to watch the game, but I was able to listen to a good portion of the second half. It sounded like our defensive scheme was pretty basic. One theory is that Cosgrove is reluctant to blitz the LB's because he wants them to help the DB's. Any thoughts on that?
Also, we need to sit Grixby down. Opponents have proved time and time again that Grixby is really suspect. I don't doubt the kid's athleticism, but he's 5'9 - on a good day. He's no match for bigger, and taller receivers. Granted, we'd be putting a freshman in his place, but let's develop these young bucks.
I've said many times over that I'm not sold on Cosgrove. And no, I wasn't overly impressed with Bo Pelini so I want to make clear I am not making any comparisons between the two. Where are are defensive playmakers? Sure McKeon, Bradley, and Ruud are 'nice' players, but they aren't difference makers. Octavien is hurt, but even before his injury he was riding the pine quite a bit. If we are going to seriously compete for the Big 12 championship, we've got to have some defensive playmakers.
The radio made it sound like the KU O-line was manhandling our front seven. That scares the death out of me. Why? Because our front seven has been heralded as being the strong point of our defense.
Also, on another note, Jim Rose has to go. The guy is an absolutely horrible announcer. He can make a 2 yd. gain sound like it went for 80 yds. He fails to give the down and distance immediately after a play. I am lobbying for Darren Carlson and Steve Hanway to take over the Husker radio game broadcasts. I'm certain they'd do a much better job.
Josh Marshall
steve Oct 02 06
I think Grixby is getting way too much criticism. A better pass rush would have made him look better as would better help from the safeties. The breakdowns were everywhere, he's just the guy that is easiest to single out.
KU's offensive line has three seniors starting and a couple more on the interior. The fact is KU has one of the better offensive lines in the Big XII North. The Huskers won't see one this good again until Texas.
I think we'll all feel better after this weekend when the Huskers abuse a bad offensive line and a terrible defense against Iowa State.
Jason Oct 02 06
Thanks for the insight Josh!
Maybe we should set up a live audio stream so we can listen to Darren and Steve watching the game? Sort of like those commentary bonus tracks on DVDs?
Now that would be entertaining! :)
Scott Oct 02 06
I agree with Steve that we should not single out Grixby. We have a "decent" front seven. I hesitate to call them good based on what I saw this past Saturday. As for the secondary, they are not decent. I can't say that an interception of a ball that is thrown at your numbers is exactly an athletic play. The Kansas front seven outplayed our front seven for a good portion of the game. If the pressure from our 'D' doesn't improve then it will be a long Big 12 season.
darren Oct 02 06
Interesting developments when it comes to the secondary. Both players (Shanle in the GI paper) and coaches (Cos in the OWH) are talking about how this was more than partly due to blown assignments, or players not being on the same page. That's both coaching AND execution.
Reading between the lines and watching this season's film says this sort of points at Tierre Green. I've been worried about blown assignements on his part since La Tech. The film doesn't lie. I love Tierre, and picked him as my "breakout" player for the season. I hope he can get his head on straight.
As for Grixby, it's easy to point to where he got beat. And, yes, he did get beat on occation. But, you can't sub him out, Josh. After him, you have true frosh Corey Young, who also was beaten for a big play. We're going to live and die with these 4 guys back there.
Where have you gone, Zackary Bowman? Our Nation turns its lonely eyes to you. Woo woo woo.
Jeff Oct 02 06
Fellas, fellas, fellas...
I love the optimism on our secondary, Grixby in particular, but for heaven's sake, I can't deal with people making excuses for him. If I watch him get burned on one more slant for 15 yards, I'll start the Thenarse/Culbert campaign for starter. Give them a shot, I say. In the least, give one of them a shot at Nickle b/c I can't handle Bo Ruud lining up on the Y Receiver and picking up his jock after the play. The film does not lie. One quick jab step "out and in" and #2 is two yards outside the ball leaving the seam WIDE open.
I agree the front 7 was disappointing but I'm dont making excuses for Tierre and Cortney.
steve Oct 02 06
Jeff,
I trust that if the coaches saw the true freshman playing better, they'd put them on the field. They just don't seem ready yet.
Not to defend Grixby too much, but you're never supposed to get beat outside (there's no help there). The help is SUPPOSED to be inside. It just hasn't been.
james Oct 02 06
How about those long pass plays wow!
I saw a lot of players play very good.
get off Grixbys back. until we get taller players on pass coverage we will do the same against any team that passes.Period.
I thought the team played great,except for
the line. what happened to our line?
no rushing the quarteback,after those first two scores we should have came after the
quarterback every play but, We did,nt why?
We gave him A time to get calmed down.
ITHINK WE WILL LOSE 2 MORE GAMES
MIZZOU.TEXAS. IF WE PLAY LIKE WE CAN ,
WE CAN WIN ONE OF THOSE!!!!
Scott Oct 03 06
Jeff,
We're not making excuses for Grixby. What we're saying is that there is more to this than just him. It was a lack of pass rush, players playing out of position, poor tackling, etc.
I personally would like to see a little more bumping at the line by our defensive backs when we are blitzing. Let's disrupt the route before the receivers have a chance to make their first cut.
Jeff Oct 03 06
Steve, I agree with the last comment for sure, about bumping at the line. In fact, I'm very glad you brought it up b/c Coz's Tampa 2 defense, IMO, gives too much cushion. At least if we bump a WR at the line our safeties can have more time to eye the QB and find the go-to WR.
This would help Grixby and Green immensely b/c they're both physical and might cut down on WRs burning our guys.
Bottom line -- I'd like to see us have MORE discipline on D at let our line loose. I realize it's a bit of a contradiction but Carriker hitting the inside gap rather than pressuring from the corner sucked. I know it was to cover that dump to Cornish but crap I was frustrated by it (and so was he)!
Ronny Oct 03 06
Enjoyed reading all your comments. This is a very cool sounding board.
Scott Oct 03 06
Hey James,
Maybe if we play like we can, we could beat both Missouri and Texas. That's why they play the games. You never know what might happen.......