I Didn't Get to Vote

July 27, 2006 by Darren K. Carlson

The Big 12 media members got to vote on the finish in the Big 12 division races. Unfortunately, this humble blog site wasn't given a vote. So, I'm casting my unofficial ballot with this post.

Here's how the media members broke down the finish in the Big 12 North.

1. Nebraska (21) 160
2. Iowa State (5) 128
3. Colorado (2) 93
4. Kansas 85
5. Missouri 82
6. Kansas State 40

Like the media members, I have NU as the strong favorite in the North. They have to avoid getting beaten in the southern road games (A&M, and Okie State), and handle their business against their northern foes. Hard to say if they can beat UT at home. But, I'd take our chances with anybody in Memorial Stadium. NU is as close to a "complete team" as the North has. They should be stout on D, have an improving offense with Taylor coming back, and a very consistent kicker. Pencil them in at the top.

After that, my opinions differ from the media picks some. Here's my projected order of finish in the North. I'm even going on record with my prediction for their conference records. Take that, traditional media!

1. Nebraska (7-1)
2. Missouri (5-3)
3. Iowa State (4-4)
4. Colorado (3-5)
5. Kansas (3-5)
6. Kansas State (2-6)

Here are the thumbnail analyses to help you understand my opinions.

• I picked MU 2nd because I believe in Chase Daniel. Everyone assumes the team will get worse with Brad Smith leaving. I don't. The offense they ran last year was actually designed from Daniel's HS offense. And, he looked very sharp at times running it as a true freshman. They have talent at running back, and the best pair of TEs in the conference. They should be able to move the ball. On D, they return seven players, six from the defensive front. Their defensive backfield will need to rally around David Overstreet.
• I downgraded ISU (picked by 5 writers to win it all) because they don't have a defense, and they have a tough south schedule. Every conference game counts equally, and I think they'll lose the UT, OU and TTech games, as well as to NU. Four losses do not make a division champ. And sure, they should have a very nice offense. But, champions have defenses. ISU doesn't. And, even in years when they had a chance to sew up the division in the last week...they choked in the moment. Sell that ISU stuff someplace else. I'm not buying.
• I think Colorado has a coach but lacks players. I believe in what Hawkins did at Boise, and the guy can coach. CU hit the wall last season because they didn't have depth. It will be worse this year. They don't have any answers at QB right now, either. Yes, they may have some good players at LB and RB. But, this is a "transition year", so 3-5.
• Kansas may surprise me, depending on what their offense can do. I just think their defense carried them last season, and they lost a lot on that side of the ball. They could be that darkhorse team who moves up this list. The strength of their offense will be the line, which is good. And they have the schedule to do it, with their only south road game being at OSU. But, the losses on D and playing at Lincoln, Columbia and Ames may be too much.
• Readers of this site aren't shocked to see me pick K-State last. And, I didn't do it JUST out of spite. I have reasons. They may have some defensive players, but the transition to a pro style offense will be much tougher than their fans suspect. That, and they need to settle on just one quarterback, or they will have none. They'll resemble NU's 2004 team, with 3 potential NFL guys on D, but so much inconsistency on offense that it will equate to about 5 wins total.

So that's how I rank the North, and why. I'll break down the South in a seperate post.

Maybe you disagree with this list. If so, I welcome your predictions in the comments area below. Am I right or wrong? We'll find out. As a wise creature once said ... "difficult to see...always in motion is future."

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