Are Watch Lists Worth Watching?
Each year, college football hands out some serious hardware to exceptional players. There are awards for the best players at essentially every position on the field. They are a great honor, and NU has had multiple winners for several of them. But, unfortunately, like nearly everything else in college football, there is this need to "jump the gun" and let pre-season speculation become part of the process. The awards use pre-season "watch lists" where the field of candidates is essentially developed before a down is played. NU is fortunate to have some players on this year's watch lists. While it is a nice feather in the cap, how much do they really matter?
Measure of Talent Level
I'm happy to see NU pretty well represented on various watch lists. Adam Carriker is on the list to watch for both the Bednarik Award and the Bronko Nagurski Trophy (both for best defensive player). NU center Kurt Mann is also on two lists, the Outland Trophy for best offensive or defensive lineman (which an NU player has won 7 times!) and the Rimington Award, given for the nation's top center (and named for former NU star Dave Rimington). Middle linebacker Corey McKeon was also on the Bednarik watch list as the country's top defender. And, quarterback Zach Taylor is on the watch list for the Maxwell Award, given to the nation's outstanding football player.
I've said several times that a great team is made up of great players. And I believe you need at least five great players (all-conference or better) to win a championship of any kind. These watch lists serve as a possible "pre-snap indicator" to what NU's talent level may be. It's good to see four names circulating as potentially great before the season even starts.
But, I also know every team has exceptionally talented players who aren't on the lists. In NU's case Steve Octavian, Jay Moore, and Zack Bowman come to mind first. So, the lists are far from a perfect measure of talent.
Nothing Pre-Season Matters Much, Really
Sadly, I don't think you can put much stock in these lists other than them demonstrating some potential. Like nearly everything in college football, there is too much rush to judgment and need to speculate. Do the pre-season magazines get it right? Nope. How about the initial poll rankings to start the year? Sorry, not a good track record there either. And, these awards watch lists aren't really any different. Until football actually starts being played, we don't know much about the 2007 season, including which players are "special". Only actual downs and games played will separate the wheat from the chaff. As players drop from consideration, and others are added to the watch lists, it demonstrates the relative unimportance of the initial candidate pool.
On the upside, these lists are grounded in some reality - the performance from the previous year. They can help "set the scene" some for the upcoming year and let the casual fan know who to watch, and the news items help make the off-season a little more tolerable.
Positioning VS Reality - The Nick Reid Example
So, if they kind of measure talent, and aren't too firmly grounded in reality, then what are these watch lists? Simply put - they are positioning.
Whether you are trying to win a new contract with a client or get your player noticed by the media, the first step is to get in to good position. These list are the result of athletic departments and other muckity mucks advancing the position of their "client" - a program and its players. I'm not saying it is wrong. It's just a PR reality. Getting in good position via a watch list is the way to eventually win these awards and other honors, like being on the all-conference team. KU linebacker Nick Reid is my favorite recent example of this.
Nick was the Big 12 conference defensive player of the year, but somehow went un-drafted in the NFL draft. He signed with the Chiefs as a free agent. Scouts described him as a solid player who could develop as a special teams contributor or solid backup. Personally, I take the NFL draft as one of the ultimate evaluations of pure talent. It's inexact, sure. But, it is grounded in talent. So, how does a BCS conference's defensive POY and all-conference MLB go un-drafted!? Positioning.
I'm not trying to knock Nick Reid. He played very well at KU last year, notching 114 tackles, 14 tackles for loss and 3 sacks. But, you could argue that NU's MLB (McKeon) outplayed him last season (98 tackles, 22 for loss, and 7 sacks). The key was Reid being "watched" and positioned more by the athletic department. Reid was the senior, and McKeon just a sophomore. There was also a bit of "career award" thinking going in to this, as Reid was very productive over a 48-game career. McKeon was all-conference 2nd team, by the way. I also watch NU play OU, and neither Reid nor McKeon possesses the pure talent of OU's Rufus Alexander. Again, I'm not knocking Reid, he's just a recent example of the positioning phenomena that has been a part of college ball for some time. Other programs - including NU - have benefited from it in the past, too.
So, I'm thankful NU has the talent to merit watching in 2006. I can only hope it shows in actual results, too.
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