5 Great Players? A Litmus Test for '06
In my circle of fairly rabid Husker fans and analysts, we have developed a pretty serious litmus test for a great football team. It's called the "5 great players" model. With a sample of 24 starting players (11 on offense, 11 on defense, a punter and a kicker), 5 great players boils down to about one one quarter of a starting roster. When one quarter of your roster is comprised of great playmakers, you have the potential to be a great team.
Define "Great"
For the purposes of this analysis, it is important to define "great." A great team is a championship team. Meaning in college, it is a team capable of winning a conference title. In the pros, it means a team that can get to the Super Bowl. Winning the outright national title or a Super Bowl victory involves far too many other variables. What we're trying to do is understand if a team has the ABILITY to play at that high a level. It's a more "Osborneian" way of looking at it.
When it comes to players, we define "great" as being first-team all conference for college players, and being a Pro Bowl caliber player in the NFL. I could sit here and rattle off pro and college teams and rosters to illustrate the point. Cross reference all-conference lists with championship-caliber teams, and it becomes obvious. Or, you can just search your own Husker heart, and know this is true. How did NU teams with 1 or 2 all-conference performers do? (Hint, 2002, 2004) How did teams with 5+ all-conference players do? (hint: 1997, 1999) Riiiiight.
Yes, I realize that perception plays a part, and that there may be a chicken/egg phenomena going on with the conference title team getting more all-conference selections. And yes, I know there are 2nd-team all conference players who may get robbed and not make it to 1st team. But, there is no denying the principle -- great teams are comprised of great players.
Who's Got the Right Stuff?
So, let's get to nitty gritty and project what is possible for the '06 squad. Do they have 5 "great" players? If so, who are they? The answers reveal that NU has the potential to compete for a title this year, but they must overachieve in some way. Here are my prospects in order of likelihood.
The Locks:
- Adam Carriker -- This stands to reason since he was all 1st-team last year. All reports say he's a beast, and is playing at an extremely high level this spring. He'll likely be a captain. And, should be a national awards candidate. He could be the defensive POY in the conference.
- Zach Taylor -- Am I being too presumptuous here? I don't think so. While he didn't appear on any lists last year, his performance late in the year turned heads. And, reports out of spring camp point to a continued level of high play. He'll be a captain this year, too. He's already drawing local and national media attention. He'll likely win any numbers comparison (yards, TDs) with any QB this side of whoever plays for Texas Tech. Also, consider the competition. Rhett Bomar isn't ahead of Taylor at this point. And Meyer at ISU can be very streaky, and isn't a household name.
The Contenders:
- Corey McKeon -- He was second team last year among the Associate Press, as just a sophomore. And, if you look at his numbers, you could make an argument that he could have been 1st team. Certainly, he's a candidate to go to another level this year. And, his being the "face and mouth" of NU's defense won't hurt his media profile.
- Jordan Congdon -- The only reason he didn't make the "lock" list is because CU's dynamite kicker returns. There is no denying that this kid made a lot of kicks (record for FGs made in a season) and made the 1st-team all freshman list. A little bigger leg on kick offs and long FGs, and he can slip in to the 1st team. Even if he's 2nd team, he could play at a very high level.
- Kurt Mann -- He was named the 2nd-team all conference center by the AP last year. NU's tradition with offensive linemen helps his credibility. He'll be a senior, which always helps. The downside is that he isn't healthy for spring ball. Hopefully he comes back healthy and ready to lead the line. The line's total performance may reflect on him personally in some minds.
- Matt Herian - This is contingent on his health. If he gets back to where he was, he could be a huge playmaker. He'd get a lot more looks in this offense and with the early talk that the running game is improving he could find himself with a lot of single coverage (this can also be the case if the WR's draw double coverage). Josh Mueller and Justin Tomerlin have the talent to excel too. But, they must step up.
Dark Horses:
- Steve Octavian -- This is a guy who's talent is obvious to anyone who has watched practice. Can he be healthy and take the league by storm? (Defensive newcomer of the year?). It's a real possibilty. In the 4-3, the weakside linebacker can be the highlight maker.
- Zach Bowman -- He flashed signs of his ample talent late in the year. And, he has the profile. People freak out about his measurables (height and speed). He must be more consistent. And then, make some big-time type plays.
- Any NU Wide Receiver -- Terrence Nunn is the strongest possibility here, because he also adds to the return game. And, both he and Nate Swift were All-Conference honorable mention last year, and Swift was 1st-team all Freshman. If they both moved in to 2nd-team level performance this year, that would be great for NU.
- Jay Moore -- Any other year, and much of the buzz would be about Moore's ability and potential. But, he's in Carriker's sizable shadow, and Barry Turner is getting a lot of hype right now. Keep an eye on Moore, though. Reports are that he has taken things to a new level.
What Does it Mean?
Basically, NU is knocking at the door. It takes at least 2 great players to be a winning team. Check. It takes 3-4 to win a division. Yeah, that's looking pretty good. It takes 5+ to win it all in the Big 12. So, some additional playmakers will have to emerge for NU to do that. But, it's not impossible.
What is really crazy is how good things look for the 2007 squad. There are so many returning players for that year, and so many other potentially great players in the imbedded in the NU 2-deep right now (Turner, Glenn, Lucky, Suh, etc), that things could get really freaky. That's a story for another year.
But, can NU arrive just a shade earlier? Maybe. It sure will be fun to watch.
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